Oil & Gas News
Chinese crude oil imports rose to a
record high of 27.88mln tonnes in April, according to customs. China’s imports in
April were 6.78mbpd from March which dipped below 6mbpd for the first time
since November last year. Demand for oil lifted by new refinery and stockpile
needs. (BBG
Libyan
rebels reject talks with the PM keeping two major export terminals shut. The
rebels warned of potential action is Tripoli does not fulfil its part of
agreements. The PM commented that the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament
undermined the agreement. (RTRS)
Energy
Aspects cuts French, Dutch and Belgian gas use forecasts by 10.1bnm this year
vs. Prev. 9.6bcm. Adding that demand in 2015 will rise by 4.6bnm and 1.3bcm in
2016.
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Mcx
R 1
|
R2
|
R 3
|
R 4
|
R 5
|
6025
|
6045
|
6064
|
6084
|
6103
|
S 1
|
S 2
|
S 3
|
S 4
|
S 5
|
5967
|
5948
|
5929
|
5909
|
5890
|
Nymex
R 1
|
R 2
|
R 3
|
R4
|
|
101.5
|
101.75
|
102.01
|
102.26
|
|
S 1
|
S 2
|
S 3
|
S 4
|
|
100.75
|
100.50
|
100.25
|
100.00
|
High(Rs)
|
Low(Rs)
|
||||
6055
|
5965
|
||||
6035
|
5977
|
||||
6060
|
6000
|
||||
6059
|
5992
|
||||
6069
|
5988
|
||||
Retracements
|
|||||
138.2%
|
107.0338
|
||||
100% (a)
|
104.1
|
||||
76.4%
|
102.2875
|
||||
61.8%
|
101.1662
|
||||
50%
|
100.26
|
||||
38.2%
|
99.3538
|
||||
23.6%
|
98.2325
|
||||
0% (b)
|
96.42
|
||||
Downtrend
|
|||||
High (a)
Low (b)
Custom (c)
|
|||||
Retracements
|
|
138.2%
|
108.2174
|
100% (a)
|
103.45
|
76.4%
|
100.5047
|
61.8%
|
98.6826
|
50%
|
97.21
|
38.2%
|
95.7374
|
23.6%
|
93.9153
|
0% (b)
|
90.97
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99.75, 99.35 buy for
target of 101.6, 102.10
1024
|
1016.01
|
1008.06
|
1000.14
|
992.25
|
99.78
|
99.57
|
99.37
|
98.75
|
BUY SELL ,101.55,102.20
Technical view
According to Binary
Tribune’s analysis for today, in case West Texas Intermediate June future
breaches the first resistance level at $100.84, it probably will continue up to
test $101.41. Should the second key resistance be broken, the US benchmark will
most likely attempt to advance to $101.90.
If the contract
manages to breach the first key support at $99.78, it will probably continue to
drop and test $99.29. With this second key support broken, the movement to the
downside will probably continue to $98.72.
The light sweet crude
markets went back and forth during the previous week, essentially
settling nothing. If anything, the only thing that we have settled is that the
$100 level is where the market seems to be the most comfortable at the moment.
Doesn’t really matter though, ultimately we are in an uptrend and we don’t see
anything the changes that on this chart. With that being the case, break above
the top of the candle for the past week sends us going long in this
marketplace, something that we think will ultimately happen anyways. A break
above there since the market to the $104 level, and a break above there in sub
with the market going to the $105 level. Any pullback at this point in time
should offer buying opportunities, unless of course we somehow manage to break
down below the $97 level, something that we don’t foresee happening anytime
soon.
Classic
|
Woodie's
|
Camarilla
|
DeMark's
|
|||||
Resistance 4
|
101.3385
|
|||||||
Resistance 3
|
103.48
|
100.7143
|
||||||
Resistance 2
|
102.33
|
102.3375
|
100.5062
|
|||||
Resistance 1
|
101.21
|
101.225
|
100.2981
|
101.77
|
||||
Pivot Point
|
100.06
|
100.0675
|
||||||
Support 1
|
98.94
|
98.955
|
99.8819
|
99.5
|
||||
Support 2
|
97.79
|
97.7975
|
99.6738
|
|||||
Support 3
|
96.67
|
99.4658
|
||||||
Support 4
|
98.8415
|
|||||||
R 1
|
R 2
|
R 3
|
R 4
|
R 5
|
||||
100.50
|
100.75
|
101.00
|
101.25
|
101.50
|
||||
S1
|
S 2
|
S 3
|
S 4
|
S 5
|
||||
99.75
|
99.50
|
99.25
|
99.00
|
98.75
|
||||
R1
|
R 2
|
R 3
|
R 4
|
R 5
|
||||
101.60
|
102.40
|
103.20
|
104.00
|
104.81
|
||||
S 1
|
S 2
|
St 3
|
S 4
|
S 5
|
||||
99.22
|
98.43
|
97.65
|
96.87
|
96.1
|
||||
Next week probable highs – 101.30, 102.07
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Falling top
104.10
102.2
101.14
99.35 – terminated,
High/Low/Range
Statistics
|
||||||||||
Trading
Days
|
||||||||||
5
|
101.18
|
98.91
|
2.27
|
2.3%
|
1.27
|
1.3%
|
48%
|
True
|
False
|
247,057
|
Bull smell
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My view is that
98.74 only once touched. ( during US
trading hours)
99.35 many times price hovered around.
99.35 most of the trading period price
stayed above.
Other markets Asian and European are
comfortable.
Next level 99.75, fairly upholded. During trading
last week.
100.10 -100.40 slightly resisted, middle of
the week.
Price tried to breach many times 100.40.
Once traded abv 100.55, it flew to reach
the PP 101.14.
Cant hold there, looked for support at
100.40, but had that only at 100.10.
It means Ground floor is 99.35, first floor
99.75 and second floor 100.10.
In the last 5 days, this 101.18 is new
high, which means some buying interest seen.
At the same time heavy selling came at
101.15 shows a strong resistance.
This shows market is volatile. As US market
is on strong sell side, buy only during US trading hours and sell during China
– closing and Europe markets running.
Buy only during US trading hours means,
look for support levels of US market
and are 99.75, 99.35
sell during China – closing and Europe
markets running, look for resistance levels
101.60. 102.20.
I
strongly suspect Chinese Market used by Russians effectively
To
counter US moves.US cannot match Russia – China combine.
So
some of the US speculators may turn positive on crude this
week,
as evidenced by move past 101.00 in Nymex.
NYMEX My trading ideas for the week May 12 -16
BUY- NYMEX
Next week probable low - 99.00 – 98.80 - allot -25% of planned trading lot
Next week intermediate probable low - 99.35 – 99.55 - allot - 55% of planned
trading lot
Next week high probable low - 99.70 – allot -20% of planned trading lot
Buy
only during US trading hours means, look for support levels of US market
SELL -NYMEX
Next week probable high - 102.07 – 102.23 - allot -20% of planned
trading lot
Next week intermediate probable high - 101.30 -101.55 - allot - 55% of planned
trading lot
Next week low probable high - 100.70 - allot -25% of planned trading lot
Sell
during China – closing and Europe markets running, look for resistance levels
DO
NOT WAIT FOR EXACT LEVELS, PLUS / MINUS FEW POINTS WILL HELP YOU.
Buy
after data release in US markets,Sell in middle of China -Europe market time
Buy
99.70/99.55/99.35 for Target of 101.30/101.55 /102.15
No big
bullish factor seen, so trade with 20-25% of your capital.Exit if trade reverses but I
don’t see bearish market.
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