Thursday 27 November 2014

Buy oil producing companies stocks and calls of respective countries,expect min.10% return


CRUDE TREND CHANGED. THIS BUY CALL SUFFICIENT FOR THIS MONTH CONTRACT TILL ITS EXPIRY. GOOD LUCK TO ALL


MY LONG BUY CALL INITIATED WITH A STOPLOSS OF 63.04 FOR TARGET OF 80. I AM NOW BULLISH AND ANNOUNCE A TREND CHANGE ABOUT TO COMMENCE.

CRUDE OIL BUY ON DIPS BELOW 68.00 WITH STOPLOSS OF 63.04 TARGET 79.48

It came near 67.77 and gone up. Just missed my final target 67.70 by 0.07 cents.


69.40 - 67.70 is my final target already posted in this blog.

While 69.40 reached, I will wait for 67.70 to initate my trend change buy call.
Good Luck

My overall view on US OIL described on 24 oct. Check this blog

Friday, 24 October 2014

As expected NG is falling, Oil looking for support and pullback from 80 levels.When the speculators lose hope,Oil will slide again to my target of 70.

70.47 target achieved in a day


I am now looking at 70.47


73.02 target done


Wednesday 26 November 2014

74.40 revised stoploss for shorts


74.63 maintain stoploss for your shorts


A week ago, on 20th Nov, I wrote Crude will break its previous low 73.25 before OPEC meeting on 27th, I can see it trying to break it today


OPEC daily basket price stood at $75.70 a barrel Monday, 24 November 2014

Vienna, 25 November 2014--The price of OPEC basket of twelve crudes stood at 75.70 dollars a barrel on Monday, compared with $75.42 the previous Friday, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations. (View Archives)
The new OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Merey (Venezuela).

Monday 24 November 2014

watching intra day crude oil price.Not all the speculators are bullish. 77 is strong intraday resistance it seems.


sell crude oil 76.10 stop loss 77.15 target 75.05


TRADING IDEAS BEFORE ME

1) Selling Crude oil current month future around 77 - 78 to my target of 69.40-67.80. ( OPEC may cut production very modestly due to pressure from its members) but the price is already factored in. Stoploss for shorts is 81.85. The upper speculative target of Crude oil is 79.50 - 79.90. Potential target for any bullish move is 84.67.

2) NG will go down if crude oil crashes again to my target of 69.40.

3) Gold prices will hit 1268 - 1272,keep stoploss 1146.


Sunday 23 November 2014

Courtesy : CNBC

Oil traders increase bets on OPEC action

11
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Patti Domm | CNBC
OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
Oil gushed higher on China's surprise rate cut but also as traders increased bets that OPEC will have no choice but to cut production when it meets on Thanksgiving Day.
China's central bank cut rates for the first time in more than two years, firing up a global risk rally that was also driven by the European Central Bank's easing program. Oil futures began rising Thursday on speculation about OPEC and promise to stay volatile into next week. Iran is also a factor for the market, as Monday's deadline for a deal on its nuclear program approaches.
West Texas Intermediate futures for January were up nearly 1 percent, holding above $76.50 per barrel, while Brent futures rose above $80 per barrel, a jump of about 1.4 percent.
OPEC has been publicly divided on the need for a production cut, just as Wall Street is fairly evenly divided on whether OPEC will act when it meets in Vienna on Thursday. Venezuela has said it is willing to cut production, while Libya and Ecuador also called for lower output.
"What Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador say isn't really a counterbalance to what the Saudis do," said Gene McGillian, analyst with Tradition Energy. Iran has also called for OPEC members to stabilize prices.
"I think some of the shorts that have money in the market are looking to scrape it out," McGillian said. "The market is trying to stabilize." He said dovish comments from ECB President Mario Draghi and the launch of its asset buying program helped support prices, and cold weather in North America should help lift demand.
"You're going to see book squaring ahead of the determination of the Iran nuclear talks. It's a big week for oil next week. The talks are expected to conclude on Monday and then OPEC meets Thursday," said John Kilduff of Again Capital. "I think you're going to see this market be volatile as everybody gets squared and lays their bets down. There are well-articulated views on each side."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said it expects OPEC to agree on a 500,000 barrel-a-day cut next week, and it expects that should support prices before oil heads back up to $90 over the next several months. 
"They're running around like chickens without a head, but they're going to do something," said Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Merrill Lynch head of global commodities and derivatives research. OPEC has a production ceiling set at 30 million and output is around 30.6 million barrels a day.
"We're calling for a half-million barrels a day in the ceiling. That hopefully is enough to get prices back up again, but we'll see," Blanch said.
OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, have budgetary break-evens near or above current prices and that should be a factor in their decisions. 
But street views vary on whether members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can agree among themselves on a production cut since Saudi Arabia has been signaling it will protect its market share and that it won't be the only country to shoulder production cuts.
Kilduff said part of the volatility stems from the various views, with some firms seeing no cut at all. He is in that camp.
"If they don't cut, prices will fall precipitously, straight down through $70 in rocket fashion," he said. "There's a lot evidence out there with people buying the straddles ... that means people don't know which way it's going to go but it's going to go a long way in either direction."
One popular call has been to buy the March $75 straddle, he said. "You're buying the March 75 put (options on WTI futures) and buying the March 75 call with the idea that prices are going to go a long way from $75—one way or the other," he said. 
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, does not expect OPEC to cut production at this meeting.
"I don't think any of the members of OPEC are going to be giving thanks on Thanksgiving Day because to them what happened in the oil market is a real shock," he said.
While oil prices had been higher than supported by fundamentals before the $30 decline, he said OPEC members have been surprised by how far crude has fallen. "They're worried it will fall further, so I think this OPEC meeting is just a first stage in terms of them adjusting to what is a new reality in the world oil market."
The surge in U.S. oil production has added more crude to world markets at a time when demand growth has slowed. Yergin said the signals so far are that there will not be an agreement at this meeting, unless something very dramatic happens.
Yergin said OPEC is a fractured organization, with some members, like Venezuela, more desperate for higher prices. "I think the Saudi position is different than the other countries because what they want to do is defend their market share," he said, noting the Saudis want to see real cut backs from the other producers.
Whether it's now or later, production cuts will only come when there's a real panic among members.
"I think at this point there are a lot of barbs going back and forth," Yergin said.
"I think the recognition is really there, now that this boom in the United States is not going away," he said. U.S. production reached 9 million barrels a day this month, a level last seen in 1986 and a million barrels more than a year ago.
Blanch said OPEC's strategy will be to keep markets volatile, and by doing that they will be hurting some U.S. shale production. He said Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to meet its budget, though some estimates are lower.
"Part of the strategy is going to be creating volatility in the market and being confusing, and obscure what they're going to do," he said.
Blanch said the shale boom was driven by credit, and some marginal players are already being sidelined.
"By keeping prices more volatile, you slow down fixed income investment into the energy sector," he said. Saudi Arabia is also more nimble than the diverse group of producers that drove the U.S. oil boom.
"They can respond faster to price fluctuations and demand fluctuations than shale producers. A shale producer needs six months to a year, and in two to three months, the Saudis can respond ... they have the upper hand," said Blanch.
Other recent periods when OPEC cut production were in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis, in 2001 and in 1998-99.
"They only need to cut a little to change market direction, get all the shorts out of the holes," Blanch said.
U.S. production growth at current levels of around $76 per barrel would be 500,000 barrels a day next year, half of this year's growth, according to BofA. A drop to $60 would leave production flat.
Blanch said the Iran situation may continue as it has been. Iran has been crippled by sanctions during the stalemate with the West over its nuclear program.
He said even if it does settle, and oil production increases, Iran does not have that much more capacity because of a lack of investment in its operations.

NG

Posted: Saturday, November 22, 2014 6:00 pm

Angye Morrison

TIFTON — According to AAA, consumers are currently paying the lowest gas prices since December 2010 – and the trend may continue throughout the winter.

The national average price of gas as of Wednesday was $2.86 per gallon for regular, and $3.26 for premium. Diesel was at $3.61 per gallon. In Georgia, the average cost per gallon for regular was $2.78, and premium was selling for $3.20. Diesel was at $3.49.

Gas prices have dropped in recent weeks because of the decline in the cost of crude oil. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has dropped more than $20 per barrel since late June, and more than $10 per barrel since late September due to abundant supplies.

Gas prices typically decline, AAA representatives say, due to the switchover to less expensive winter-blend gas and a decline in demand. Prices could remain low this winter and drop another 5 to 15 cents per gallon. More than 60 percent of U.S. gas stations are selling gas for less than $3 per gallon.

The five states with the highest average prices as of Wednesday include Hawaii ($4.04), Alaska ($3.73), New York ($3.37), California ($3.33) and Connecticut ($3.33). The five states with the lowest gas prices Wednesday include South Carolina ($2.75), Tennessee ($2.75), Mississippi ($2.78), Virginia ($2.78) and Texas ($2.80).

Kuwait crude oil price

Kuwait crude oil price drops to USD 72.24 pb
21/11/2014   |   06:06 PM|Kuwait News
تصغير الخطتكبير الخط
Kuwait crude oil
KUWAIT, Nov 21 (KUNA) -- Price of Kuwait crude oil per barrel dropped USD 0.16 to USD 72.24 pb in Thursday's trading compared to USD 72.40 pb on Wednesday, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said on Friday.
The drop in global oil prices on Thursday have been influenced by a report of US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing a rise in US oil reserve, reaching 2.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, a rise in the exchange rate of US dollar driven by the report of US Federal Reserve's meeting has contributed to impacting oil prices and causing losses to each barrel price, yet the report has not set a certain time to raise profit.
In trades in the American crude oil, in New York on Thursday, the price stood at USD 74.68 pb. (end) fnk.hm

Courtesy: The Telegraph 23 nov - By Andrew Critchlow, Commodities editor

It wouldn’t be the first time that a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has taken place in an atmosphere of deep division, bordering on outright hatred. In 1976, Saudi Arabia’s former oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani stormed out of the Opec gathering early when other members of the cartel wouldn’t agree to the wishes of his new master, King Khaled.
The 166th meeting of the group in Vienna next week is looking like it could end in a similarly acrimonious fashion with Saudi Arabia and several other members at loggerheads over what to do about falling oil prices.
Whatever action Opec agrees to take next week to halt the sharp decline in the value of crude, experts agree that one thing is clear: the world is entering into an era of lower oil prices that the group is almost powerless to change.
This new energy paradigm may result in oil trading at much lower levels than the $100 (£64) per barrel that consumers have grown used to paying over the last decade and reshape the entire global economy.
It could also trigger the eventual break-up of Opec, the group of mainly Middle East producers, which due to its control of 60pc of the world’s petroleum reserves has often been accused of acting like a cartel.
Even worse, some experts warn that a prolonged period of lower oil prices could reshape the entire political map of the Middle East, triggering a new wave of political uprisings in petrodollar sheikhdoms in the Persian Gulf, which depend on the income from crude to underwrite their high levels of public spending and support less wealthy client states in the Arab world.
“We are now entering a new era in world oil and we will have lower prices for some time to come,” says Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer prize-winning author of The Quest: Energy Security and the Remaking of the Modern World. “Oil was really the last commodity in the super-cycle to remain standing.”
Mr Yergin spoke exclusively to The Sunday Telegraph ahead of what is being called the most important gathering of Opec in more than 20 years.
As oil ministers from its 12 member states prepare to fly into Vienna this week they face their biggest challenge since the depths of the financial crisis at the beginning of 2009, as bearish sentiment and oversupply grips the market. Brent crude prices have fallen by almost 30pc since reaching their high point for the year of $115 per barrel in June.
“The oil market is being redefined by two factors. Firstly, the astonishing growth in US oil production, which is real and dynamic. Secondly, the realisation that the world economy is much weaker that was previously expected so demand is being squeezed,” says Mr Yergin, who also sits on the US Secretary of Energy Advisory Board.
The fall in prices comes at a time when Opec’s domination of the world oil market is being challenged seriously for the first time in more than 30 years by the unexpected and sudden resurgence of the US as a major producer. By 2020, Citigroup estimates that America will be pumping more than 14m barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum liquids, giving it the capacity to export almost 5m bpd, which will transform the energy markets.
Lifting the ban on US crude oil exports, which first came into force in the 1970s to ensure energy security, is becoming an evermore likely move by Washington as it seeks to apply pressure on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to back down over Ukraine. According to the energy advisers IHS, such a move would further stimulate growth in domestic production and cut America’s existing import bill by $67bn, a figure not far from Britain’s total expenditure on defence.
“They recognise that the threat from North American supply is a challenge to Opec today just like the North Sea was in the 1980s,” said Mr Yergin. “Opec is going to have a very hard time adjusting to this because there isn’t agreement within the group on what to do. Everyone is happy for Saudi Arabia to cut production but the Saudis don’t want to cut and lose more market share, especially to Iran and Iraq.”
Opec nations are producing about 200,000 bpd more than their agreed quota of 30m bpd, while demand for the group’s oil is expected to fall as low as 29.2m bpd next year, as more North American supply becomes available. To balance supply with demand would suggest that Opec will have to agree on cutting up to 1m bpd from its members’ production and the responsibility for delivering this will fall mainly to Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom is the world’s biggest and cheapest exporter and because of its ability to immediately pump up to 12.5m bpd is viewed as the “swing” producer within Opec and the world. If the group is to agree cuts, that will mean Riyadh will have to make the biggest contribution to the overall reductions and surrender more market share to its rivals within the group such as Iran and Iraq.
Opec owes its existence to a period of great economic and political upheaval in the 1960s, when demand for crude oil began to surge from rapidly growing industrialised economies and producing countries in the Middle East started to emerge as newly independent states.
Created in Baghdad by five original members including Saudi, Iraq and Venezuela, the organisation offered the first real counterbalance to the so-called “seven sisters” of international oil companies such as Shell and BP, which had dominated global supply up to that time.
The group normally meets a few times every year at its headquarters in Vienna unless an “extraordinary” meeting is called for in response to events such as the Arab Spring in 2010, or the financial crisis. Some members urged such an emergency gathering in response to the current sharp drop in prices but appeals for deep cuts to production have so far been resisted by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi.
Saudi Arabia is the undisputed dominant force within the group, but its power is increasingly being challenged by an axis of Iran and Iraq. Since the downfall of Saddam Hussein and the exit of a major US military presence in the country, Baghdad has moved closer politically to its Shiite Muslim neighbour Iran. The country holds vast oil reserves and has plans to produce up to 9m bpd by the end of the decade, despite the threat posed by Islamic State militants in its northern provinces.
Iran, Saudi Arabia’s natural enemy in the Gulf, even before the downfall of the Shah in 1979, could also be in a position to boost its capacity significantly, if the West lifts nuclear sanctions restricting international investment in its energy sector.
Both countries need prices to remain high given the weakness of their wider economies and lack of foreign currency reserves, making it likely that they will push for a big cut in Opec production next week.
Iran’s influential oil minister Bijan Zanganeh has already called for emergency bilateral talks with Saudi Arabia in Vienna to discuss the thorny issue of how to accommodate an expected increase in production from the Islamic state.
Last week Mr Zanganeh said: “The countries in the south of the Persian Gulf are interested in keeping their market share and a decrease in market share will be difficult.”
Then there are the non-aligned countries, including Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola. These states account for a combined 6.6m bpd of Opec supply and all hold ambitious plans to boost production. Like Iran and Iraq, they are thought collectively to be pushing for deep cuts to Opec’s quota to restore oil prices back to $100 per barrel, a level required to maintain their economies.
However, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf appear reluctant to acquiesce to these demands. With relatively small populations and vast oil reserves these producers, which form the core of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), are largely dependent on Western support for their security in an inherently unstable region.
This dependency has recently been demonstrated by the need to rely on the US and the UK to launch air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq, amid fears that the terrorist group could also destabilise these oil-rich Gulf monarchies if allowed to spread its jihad throughout the wider Middle East.
In this context, Saudi and its allies may be more willing to allow oil prices to fall to levels around $70 per barrel to help appease the US by applying economic pressure on Russia, which also depends on crude sales for much of its foreign currency revenue.
However, these states – which account for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply combined – are also in danger of losing a greater share of the market to US shale production. That threat could be partly nullified by lower prices, which according to Deutsche Bank research would see almost 40pc of US shale oil wells become unprofitable if Brent continued to trade at its currently depressed levels for a prolonged period of time.
However, with break-even prices estimated in the range upwards of $80 per barrel in order to finance their economies these Gulf states, which include the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait, may be reluctant to see prices remain below $100 per barrel for too long. The problem for policymakers in these countries is that Opec’s ability to influence prices has been fundamentally weakened by the rapid growth of supply outside the Middle East.
Opec has seen its share of the market fall from around half 20 years ago to just under a third today, with production from outside the group expected to exceed 63m bpd next year. The need to redress this decline makes the necessity for Opec’s biggest producers such as Saudi Arabia to cut production even more unpalatable and could signal the beginning of the end of the cartel’s global influence.
“The only thing that really unites Opec members now is that they all produce oil but if the price keeps going down then the pressure will build for some kind of action,” said Mr Yergin.
Lower oil prices will also pull at the political fabric holding together many of Opec’s members, especially in the war-torn Middle East. Persian Gulf sheikhdoms have pumped billions of pounds into supporting neighbouring Arab states whose old regimes were torn apart by the popular uprisings, which started as bread riots in Tunisia in 2010.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have agreed to pump an additional $20bn into supporting the government of ex-Field Marshal Abdulfattah el-Sisi in Cairo, while continuing to support factions in the campaign to oust the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Falling oil prices will seriously challenge their ability to co-opt neighbouring states and undermine their own domestic economic models, which are dependent on revenue from petroleum exports.
“Riyadh has miscalculated,” says Christopher Davidson, a reader in Middle East politics at Durham University and author of After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies.
“The Arab Spring never really ended, it was just put off. Certain regimes have been trying to keep those political forces at bay with oil so the current fall in the price will weaken the power of these governments substantially.”
Whatever action Opec takes on November 27, it is clear that its once staggering power over the global economy has been considerably weakened as a new era of lower oil prices beckons
.

watching the market.Speculators in moving price ahead of meeting.I will make my stand on its out come


Saturday 15 November 2014

is it right time ?..

to buy stocks of oil producing companies in your own country or stocks traded on international exchanges that are battered down due to crude oil price crash.

Yes. buy on dips.

I am buying in India.

Saturday 8 November 2014

Copper Futures I do not track. On requisition from My client, I worked on that.It looks to test 2.7700.

Copper seems to be clinging to its 0.618 support of 2.995 since 2013 march.
It has been moderate,neither bullish or bearish.
But it seems to possess bearishness.
It looks to test 2.7700.

I look at trends and not short term calls.Trend calls buy/sell/targets will take few weeks to few months.


Silver futures - This pull back will not cross 16.700. Wait for 13.700 and buy on dips for target of 19.000$

Since june 2013, FIB 0.618 RT of 19.000 $ provided good support till August 2014.
The support was broken in September 2014 and touched a low of 15.000$.

Will there be a Buy ?
Not quite sure at these levels.

Serious buy for longterm opportunities available from
buy on dips from 13.700.

Gold futures my technical analysis Gold will find its bottom around 1075 - 1045 $ when the DJIA trade at its peak in Feb 2015.

One should be long in DJIA index till Feb 2015 and short in Gold futures.
Fortuners will bet on Gold turn around in Feb 2015 and take a long call towards to break the previous
resistance of 1330, and will short DJIA or exit and move to EM like India to lift their Indexes to record high.

I request your comments and opinions.

Regards
Anna

I have bearish view on Gold Futures and took a sell call with a Stoploss 1250, stoploss hit but I maintained Sell call

I wrote 1120 imminent but Gold futures made a low of 1130 and reversed. I believe it is not a buy situation

Call nature and Timeframe

CRUDE OIL CALL -  TREND SELL, UPWARD MOVE IS A PULL BACK FROM THE SUDDEN CRASH.
SELL : ----------
TARGET: ---------
STOP LOSS : --------

NG CALL -  BUY TREND,
BUY : ----------------
TARGET: ------------
STOP LOSS : ------------

Timeframe  -  2 weeks.
Rates are in US$

Resumed weekly trend advisory services for two of Indian clients


Tuesday 4 November 2014

NG - min Target 5.100


When crude was trading around 85, I wrote on 12 oct,that Crude is aiming at 70,

Sunday, 12 October 2014

crude oil is under immense bear pressure that it targets which I myself cannot believe. Do you know the prices bear pressure looking for ?

70$. Until and unless this ISIS war ends and positive news flows. I am extremely bearish and will short again at 88$ levels.I will not buy Crude unless bull sentiment appears.

crude moves directly to 70. My earlier idea of buying one lot NG and shorting two crude lots was too early


Sunday 2 November 2014

Markets are clear. Equity markets poised for another 11 % upside. conversely commodity 11% downside

Overall scenario and my analysis points towards this macro scale
Earnings and trade style depends on individual attitude.
I am in equity.

nifty