Was sharp on exiting full NIFTY portfolio,increased Gold lots on my Brexit assessment but US oil exited positions only after brexit.

My Idea is US oil may test 45.45: BREXIT IMPACT and Dollar strengthening.

7873-7896 could be the bottom for India Nifty - Brexit hit

If Brexit happens Nifty may fall to 8004 - 7935 and it will pullback, i dont see going below 7935

Will reduce the exposure in Large cap stocks on market opening tomorrow and increase gold investments.

BREXIT: Britain will exit Eurozone and I like to see my technical assessment wrong.

I am reading, watching in Press and Media the pros and cons of the outcome of Brexit referendum.
Assessing from what I gather in Media is "in" is good for Britain and the world markets.

It is not easy to assess a nations mood by opinion poll.

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to apply my mind on technical analysis of Brexit.

Unfortunately the first line of resistance falls in 2016 (.01854) and run through 2017 (0.2) and completes by 2018 (0.2119).

This shows Britain exiting Eurozone is a 100% probability and will complete the exit by 2018.

My best part of investment: Rolled over Nifty futures bought at my triggered levels, i expect to break 8400 in this week

Monday, 29 February 2016

India Nifty: all buy levels triggered and went long 7009,6976 and 6886 with stoploss of 6716

Bull market on

My fellow Germans, the bull move of your markets just started,Hold your longs to the target of 11900 with stop of 9525. Invest and sit tight.

16

93.22017

109.2202

11929.05

8690

93.22017

9.655059

0.7875

10.44256

109.047

11891.26

capitalists,markets,RBI governor,investors,traders and common man. Who won ????

BREXIT will not happen. Market creators shorted then used Media to induce fears in small investors and traders to sell further ,now they are buying.

Good money made by them.

added new positions in oil.gold and coffee.

though it is difficult and not an easy switch, I am changing my style of making money.from trading to investing

Trading without a stop loss.Just work on any financial instrument I am comfortable with, identify only uptrend, calculate possible trend reversals, start investing in small proportions continuously,

exit in small proportions close to trend reversals.

The issue I am facing here, is, once the position is taken,I am continuosly monitoring the prices and if market turns opposite,becomes little nervous and panic sets in.

I discussed this with a trader,he adviced me it is normal to get panic when market turns opposite, the only thing if you are confident of your targets not to worry about swings and stay in until the the target met.Further he added conviction is more important if you take the trade.

I understand what he said,

I am 100% confident of my targets on Oil,Gold and India Nifty. Will continue to invest.

Make money.

While Oil reaching 74 $ is a 100% probability, after 74 $ is an interesting scenario in my calc. Also note 74 is 50% retarcement of High/low

will buy coffee plantation and energy stocks when market open, can see 20-25 % upside by December 2016

Followed by Sugar, Coffee ARRIVES.Ha ha ha ,but it is in really in Bull run to 186.40,having found its bottom at 111

Coffee already in bull run ,buy on dips towards 136.25 - 138.65 one can look at 164.8 and 186.40

On the run up of Sugar stocks,visited the price range of London Sugar,

Sugar prices to retest 495.88 from 534.15, stop loss can be 543

Short term Oil and preciuos metals outperforn equities but looking at 4-5 yr T,F., Indian equities outperform all asset classes.

If Brexit happens,FTSE would see a sell off to 5297 and could be the bottom in any case before its bull market sets in.

7187(14-2)=5297,7166(.7875-.675=.1125)=5284

US OIL; Market deceives traders and rewards investors: same old story.

Though i know 26 $ is where one can start investing in oil, I acted as a tradet and looked for 20.85 which never came: until oil broke 51 $.

Though some money is lost but earned money only.

Now looking at opportunities in investing Oil.

My restructured study shows that

6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3
2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998
1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292	1.584292
0.225	0.3375	0.45	0.5625	0.675	0.7875	0.9	1.0125	1.125	1.2375	1.35
1.809292	1.921792	2.034292	2.146792	2.259292	2.371792	2.484292	2.596792	2.709292	2.821792	2.934292
3.273536	3.693283	4.138343	4.608714	5.104399	5.625396	6.171705	6.743327	7.340261	7.962508	8.610068
10.71604	13.64034	17.12588	21.24025	26.05489	31.64508	38.08994	45.47246	53.87944	63.40154	74.13326
2	2.618	4	5	6.118	7	8	9	10	11	12
2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998	2.50998
4.50998	5.12798	6.50998	7.50998	8.62798	9.50998	10.50998	11.50998	12.50998	13.50998	14.50998
20.33992	26.29618	42.37984	56.3998	74.44204	90.43972	110.4597	132.4796	156.4996	182.5196	210.5395

 Oil bulls( Govts of Russia,OPEC,American Funds) will push the prices to the level of 74.13 - 74.44  and will exhaust,from where the Oil bears will step in.

I think better late than never and to avoid trading ,act as an investor , I am buying oil with the stoploss 45.47 and hold my oil investments till 74.13 to book profits.

What I am going to do on next trading day in MCX ? BUY crude oil

	Buy with sStoploss 3201 target 3889
1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815	1815
42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282
6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083	6.527083
0.9	1.0125	1.125	1.2515	1.364	1.4765	1.589	1.7015	1.814	2.3765	2.714	3.5015	4.064
7.427083	7.539583	7.652083	7.778583	7.891083	8.003583	8.116083	8.228583	8.341083	8.903583	9.241083	10.02858	10.59108
55.16157	56.84532	58.55438	60.50636	62.2692	64.05735	65.87081	67.70958	69.57367	79.2738	85.39762	100.5725	112.171
3042.798	3231.39	3428.615	3661.019	3877.453	4103.344	4338.963	4584.588	4840.496	6284.335	7292.754	10114.82	12582.34
8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	19.854
42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282	42.60282
50.60282	51.60282	52.60282	53.60282	54.60282	55.60282	56.60282	57.60282	58.60282	59.60282	60.60282	61.60282	62.45682
2560.645	2662.851	2767.056	2873.262	2981.468	3091.673	3203.879	3318.085	3434.29	3552.496	3672.701	3794.907	3900.854

Dear Followers, This table was prepared when Gold was going down from 1300 to 1220, i was confused over the volatility hence I covered my longs earlier and went short.

after the sharp spike from 1200 -1243, things looked different, once position taken  and if the market moves in opposite direction, panic sets in.

Trend reversals are key points and my parameters are successful in major indices but not in crude.

In crude key point is 20.85 but it reversed from 26.04, but price history always be different, I still believe 20.85 is a possibility.

Coming to Gold, 1420 is the key reversal area, it is a painstaking effort but not given enough weightage during what I assumed downtrend where 991 looked like a possible price.

This table comes to you as free and at the same time I apologize for my delayed posting.

	Dec-70
price of Gold	228	228	228	228	228	228
	15.09967	15.09967	15.09967	15.09967	15.09967	15.09967
	3.885829	3.885829	3.885829	3.885829	3.885829	3.885829
	0.9	1.35	1.8	2.25	2.7	3.15
	4.785829	5.235829	5.685829	6.135829	6.585829	7.035829
	22.90416	27.41391	32.32865	37.6484	43.37315	49.50289
	524.6006	751.5223	1045.142	1417.402	1881.23	2450.536
	355	355	355	355	355	355
	18.84144	18.84144	18.84144	18.84144	18.84144	18.84144
	4.340673	4.340673	4.340673	4.340673	4.340673	4.340673
	0.9	1.35	1.8	2.25	2.7	3.15
	5.240673	5.690673	6.140673	6.590673	7.040673	7.490673
	27.46466	32.38376	37.70787	43.43697	49.57108	56.11018
	754.3073	1048.708	1421.883	1886.771	2457.292	3148.353
	1046	228	355	754	1900	1420
	32.34192	15.09967	18.84144	27.45906	43.58899	37.68289
	5.686996	3.885829	4.340673	5.240139	6.602196	6.138639
	0.45	2.25	1.8	0.9	0.9	0.45
	6.136996	6.135829	6.140673	6.140139	5.702196	5.688639
	37.66272	37.6484	37.70787	37.70131	32.51504	32.36061
	1418.48	1417.402	1421.883	1421.389	1057.228	1047.209

XAU Targets

India Nifty

US OIL / MCX TARGETS

45.32 could be the target for US OIL before it resumes its uptrend.

Will resume buying Nifty stocks on Nifty hitting 8007

See further weakness in MCX crude : exited crude at 3190. will short again below 3158

XAU: exit 50 % at 1367,till then hold

MCX CRUDE Shorts will exit at 3190

XAU : BREACHING 1234 XAU WILL MOVE ABOVE 1304 AND FIRST TARGET IS 1377

MCX ; 30177 buy gold triggered, my stoploss is 30040, 31390 is my exit if my stoploss holds.

US 30 :If 15291 is held,19463 is the target for Dow Jones

15291

15753

16259

16773

17295

18363

19463

DAX: Support resistance: 9070 is possible if stays /go below 9771

8350 8692 9069 9454 9847 10657 11499 12372.6

MCX ; Gold crossing 30177 the target 31447 can be seen.

24800

25387

26029

26678

27335

28674

30045

31447.4

MCX ; Crude crossing 3476 look at 3915

1825

1987

2169

2359

2558

2978

3430.9

3915.51

My current portfolio and targets

	current price	Target
ADANI PORTS	202.75	220.8
ASHOK LEYLAND	105.25	140.5
ASTRA MICRO WAVE	124.1	140.9
AXIS BANK	541.05	624.3
BANKBARODA	146.3	204.8
BHARATFORGE	750.45	806.8
CADILAHEALTHCARE	317.8	351
CUB	109.65	113.9
CROMPTONCREAVES	71	104.1
GLENMARKPHARMA	771.45	885.6
HINDALCO	115.3	132.8
ITC	350.7	409
KVB	473.95	561.9
LIC HOUSING	473.3	555.5
LUPIN	1437.45	1571
PNB	84.2	103.5
POWERGRID	154.4	164.7
RELIANCE	976.7	1053
RELIANCE INFRA	549.8	606.8
SBIN	205.95	257
SUNPHARMA	741.4	805.8
TATAMOTORSDVR	312.65	400.1
TATASTEEL	334.4	399.4
VEDANTA	116.8	131.8
BHEL	123.6	129.2
NMDC	91.75	110.7
BEL	1268	1386
SAIL	45.05	58.4

XAU ; Gold staying above 1163 for longer time gives it the freedom of reaching 1449

Safe exit for US OIL : 64.25: MAX it can reach 66.60

India Nifty major correction expectation - 8930 - 8985

6825	82.61356	9.0892	9.0892	82.61356
	12	0.45	0.6469	11.9
	94.61356	9.5392	9.7361	94.51356
	8951	90.99634	94.79164	8932
		8280.334	8985

differential pricing and why US OIL not going down

Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Prices as Iran Ramps Up Production

They’re drilling down on the competition. Iran’s trying to make up for lost time in the oil export game, and is now shipping 400,000 barrels a day to Europe. That’s about half of Saudi Arabia’s daily total, but it’s enough that the kingdom, also jockeying with Iran for political power and influence in the Middle East, is playing hardball, slashing European prices by 10 to 35 cents a barrel. Meanwhile, it upped prices by 10 cents in the U.S. — where Iran’s not yet allowed to sell.

looks like some big funds buy Gold pushing prices higher,but may not sustain or looking at 1376