INDIA BANK NIFTY : BUY CALL for target of 17316 -17519

dayhigh	daylow	swing low	swing high	swing low	swing close
20907	20435	8760	8870	14755	14935
0.9	0.928	1.35	1.312	0.45	0.45
15316	14791	14771	14732	17316	17519

INDIA NIFTY : BUY CALL for Target of 8002 - 8140

dayhigh	daylow	swing low	swing high	swing low	swing close
9119	8894	5119	5317	7267	7398
0.45	0.478	1.312	1.237	0.225	0.225
7551	7267.60	9115.2	9136	8001	8142

XAU GOLD:

1046 -  seen Profit taken at 1112 (1), 1127.45 (1.236) - hence My Exit  targets set (1.382) 1137 ,

(1.618) 1153 and (1.88) 1170.

US OIL : CONTRARIAN TRADE :

STOPLOSS at 29.30,  BUY  33.50 FOR A TARGET OF 37.40 (1) , 42.10 (1.382)

USD -INR - OVERVIEW @ 67.98

Trades near short term resistance zone :  68.47.- 68.60 on all counts.
Another confirmed one percent up move left from here,

DAX - OVERVIEW at 9737

This bounce provides an excellent opportunity to short DAX at 9740 - 9730.
The short can be held till  8590 near that fresh buying can emerge.
Nearly 1145 points can be gathered and that is 11.7%.

DOW 30 - OVERVIEW at 15886

Near 14,440 it will reverse.
likely will shed  another 1440 points / 9.1% from here.

NIKKEI 225 - OVER VIEW at 16709

Correction not yet done.
will see rebound around 15360 - 15400
i.e, still 1300 points or 7.8 %down from here.
It may take temporary supports before it reaches there.

INFLECTION POINTS: US OIL - 21.87- 22.05. XAUUSD - 1234 INDIA NITY - 6867

There are 3 groups in market.

who trade like videogames - always gamblers and losers.
Market controllers - strong traders, make money
Market movers- with  fundamental with technical knowledge,  Make huge money

After hours of working, the fine tuning of my analysis is happening and it is satisfying.

W.D.GANN - Grand Master of Technical Trading.

I have no answer for some of my failures in Gold futures.,one or two in US OIL.

As far as available literature concerned with Gann trading. the general part is known to public which I also use and explained in this Blog how it can be effectively used.

But something is missing and I was working on it almost a year.
It seems I have got what I missed.

Ex.
I have no answer why Gold reversed from 1047.
Likewise, India Nifty why 7540 cant be seen from the top of 9120.

I got the answer now.

As per  Gann  Main equation Gold Bottom lies at 1057  from 1900 and a little low is a aberration while it correctly predicted at intermediate at 1432.
As per  Gann  trading equation Gold low is at 1047.

Trading equation sometimes falters as High and low seems at sometimes at differential  inflection points.
While Main equation inflection points are  intact and hasnt failed so far.

In that case I see main inflection point of Gold futures I see at 1234.
But before that we can see some intermediate trading inflection points ,.i.e, resistance and supports.

As per  Gann  Main equation India Nifty  high  lies at 9110  from 4040.
On breaching of the inflection point at 7550 and considering  the high of 8330,
I see main inflection point of  INDIA  futures I see at 6860.

As per  Gann  Main equation US OIL  high  lies at 147.27.  .
I see main inflection point of US OIL  futures I see at 21.87 - 22.05.

US OIL : My technicals asks me to go short 32.30 STPL 35.20 TGT ??

XAU : My Technicals asks me to go long 1088 STPL 1074 TGT 1136

For past few days I am searching for a Magic number which can be used for my trading and most probably it could be 32.40.

A further confirmation we can have  if oil reverses from 32.40-32.70.

U.S. crude reached a low of $32.40 in 2008.

A dead cat bounce from 27.50, a nice place to short around 32.20-32.50

On 20th Dec: My exit points of US OIL lot: 33.15 $; 32.12 $ ; 30.49 $; 28.90 $ ; 27.55 $ stoploss 36.39 $

Analysis proving right. Hit my target 27.55.
You might be wondering all along  I am posting at 26.40 but my 27.55 being my last target on Dec 20, settings.

I have set shorts at 32.40 for the final target of 26.40 based on my previous experience.

Good to see Bank nifty reversed as expected lines low of 14756

In Continuation of my previous post< devised an entry exit strategy with Nifty BeES >

Checked the safety factors,risk reward ratio, unforeseen calamities and devised a strategy , passive
investment, with defined entry exit points without stoploss ( includes fundamental /technical analysis).
Time frame min: 13 months from Entry.


This is available on a Fee.If interested contact me at my email : updowncrude@gmail.com.

I am surprised on my readings today how well fundamental and technical go hand in hand

I am very eagerly waiting for the results on predictions.

WTI CRUDE :

Fundamental : concentration of shorts around 26.50,
Technical : My technical anlaysis shows bounceback 26.40-26.60

INDIA NIFTY:

Fundamental : Nifty PE ratio buying seen at 18.30 /6965
Technical :  My technical anlaysis shows bounceback 6960-6980.

Arun Nadia

Concentration Ratios - Wti Crude Oil Calendar Swap - Futures Only

July 2015 shorts played at

26.6

26.2

26.5

26.5

26.7

I checked sites that have information on concentration ratios of WTI crude oil

Do not short Nifty below 6980

INDIA NIFTY: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS in sync with TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

At 9100, Nifty PE ratio was 23.96,it couldn't cross 24,
Biggie thought enough and started pulling out profits.
They started investing in Aug /Sep 2013 when Nifty PE was 15.53.

I made few calculations which points that fresh investments
can come in around Nifty PE around 18.30.

So currently with little variation when 3rd quarter earnings out with all
Nifty companies, 18.30 translates to 6960.

If you can go thru my Blog on 25th Aug, I posted
Bearish India Nifty: Short term sell on rise. Look back for any long term outlook
is buy near 6980 levels.

So both of them compliment each other.

Fellow countrymen, wait for 6960-6980 levels to enter any nifty stock.

Happy investing.

crude will see a bounce around 26.40 but will go below 26 $.

The grouping of SAUDI allies against Iran added a new twist to the spiralling downward trend.While the Lifting of sanctions against Iran is known,History has given an indication how Saudi will behave in a such scenario, two way work. kill american and Iran oil industry.

when Nifty was trading around 7900 in 25/26 aug, I posted this targets.

It took multiple support and resistances and 5 months to reach this place 7330.That is clear 600 pts and it is clear doubling of your money in 5 months if I traded in futures.What it requires is patience.From 8600, by close of July 2015, I really believe hardcore bears /FIIhave short positions in Nifty it took 6 months to gain 1300 pts while always asking our fellows to buy on dips, mother of bull markets,reforms etc. All along our stock market history,  small investors are luredfor their exits.


Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Bearish India Nifty : short term Sell on rise. Lookback for any long term outlook is buy near 6980 levels

5108 -Aug 2013  - 9116 - Jan 2015.

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

NIfty studies based on yesterdays low :

7330 +/- 20 pts - first supportrt and Buy

iiooi
7040 +/- 20 pts - Strong Buy

DJIA will drift to 12550 - 12720 in my view

Revisited My crude oil targets. Remains the same as in the Header.

India Nifty:

I understand from my experience that Nifty futures are meant to go long or short  against your portfolio
that is long term, seeing eventual sell off liquidating 60% of your holdings and holding Nifty shorts till reversal.

Only when we see reliable evidence of buying happening we can get board the ship till then we can money in debt funds. I reiterate here,reliable datas of bullish sentiment over days of bullishness not hours .

Value investing has nothing to do with profits. When sentiment is bullish any stock will give you money.During bearish phase good company stocks will also be hammered.

My style of index analysis shows in short - medium term Nifty will test 6300 plus minus 30 points.
Till then we can see small bounces around 7270 ,6980.

My question to me is that is it worth acting on every bounce and every sell.
Again my experience tells me patience and waiting for the right time backed up strong buy / sell within the ambit of Liquidity does matter. Hell with charts, indicators, mulitple TF analysis waste of time of time and Money.

So I am shorting Nifty futures with the stoploss of 7650 for targets of 6950 and 6304, till then
I am not going to scratch my head to buy and sell shares ultimately losing out to brokerage and stoploss hit.

And I really do not believe in what people with say this is very good time to invest and dont try to bottomfish.

Global sell off is happening since Feb 2015 and we have to wait till liquidity returns.safeguard you money
in debt funds and in you local finance.

Bank nifty @ 14800-14650 reversal and buy

one year	6 mon	3 mon	2 mon
29-Jan-15	20-Jul-15	16-Oct-15	29-Dec-15
20900	19200	18000	17050
144.5683	138.5641	134.1641	130.57565
24	16	12	8
120.5683	122.5641	122.1641	122.57565
14536.72	15021.95	14924.06	15024.79
avrge	14876.88

will set buy order US OIL 27.00 $

WILL EXIT RELIANCE NXT WORKING DAY

AXIS BANK BUY 356-352 STOPLOSS 344.25 TARGET 392

First profit taken at 30.55

Sunday, 20 December 2015

My exit points of US OIL lot: 33.15 $; 32.12 $ ; 30.49 $; 28.90 $ ; 27.55 $ stoploss 36.39 $

Looking at ICICI bank to buy at 218 - 219 levels

Gold futures set target at 1158.50

On investment point of view , bought Reliance equity at 1047 stoploss 1014 target 1173

Booked profit in Nifty fut and again shorted at 7570 looking at 7270

No new postings last few days as I want to be patient to see my trades to the target.

Holding CRUDE shorts,GOLD long, Nifty futures short.