Monday 14 September 2015

what is my trading strategy

Trade Oil and Index futures only. No company shares

Enter and exit at trend reversals that lasts for few weeks to few months,

 No active trading.

Here I dont need to put a stoploss, may be My points of reversal miss by 5 % max.
Exits and buys start within the 5 % range and additional buy/ sell can be initiated in
the range.

Minimum returns can be guaranteed like a bank deposit.

Noises can be avoided and no need to get glued to the Market channels.

Keep invested only 75% of the capital.,

And I do know How hard to follow the above rules, only practice, practice.

Sunday 13 September 2015

The trading strategy should reward us consistently,only then it can be adapted to trade various instruments.

My strategy has been good consistently.

Now I have two things before me.

1. US oil trend change around 38 +.25/ -.25 was correct, but big banners point them low around 22 $

2. I have predicted trend reversal of India Nifty around 7232 +25 / -25 points.

Next few weeks I will be watching it.

If you can study my support resistance lines, you can find :

Price action limited to two zones.
1. Near support zone : between 4 and 5, price 43.50 - 45.00
2. Near resistance zone : between 5 and 6 , price 45.00 - 45.46.

You can find more action in resistance zone, which indicates oil likely to move forward.
Let us watch price this week.


US OIL : Support / Resistance and possible points of reversal. Calculations behind it and not just lines connecting highs and lows.


I just dont know why people taught me to use stoploss. Now I feel it is the worst part of the trade and it is the the best way to lose money


No Indicators. Only price action, support / resistance / possible reversal zones.


Monday 7 September 2015

I was wondering : Short term trades looks very attractive on theory too. In reality and my trading experience points to long term trades and that compounds is the wise option before me.

Also thought and tried mixing them long trades 70% allocation and short trades 30%.
It confuses my mental set up : ex : Nifty long,short  term trade few days ago ended in a loss.
As per my set up 7330 levels is target for long term trades, to mix short term trades, I went long partially long on Nifty and lost.

And long term trades do not strain me and I am quite relaxed becoz I know the right entries.

Sunday 6 September 2015

REL INFRA : I will buy 298 - 299 , exit 75 % @ 483 , 25% @ 494 with stoploss 461

64% gain expectation in 4 months.

JUST SHARING MY READING ON REQUEST FROM MY FRIEND ON HINDALCO,INDIA

HINDALCO  now trading around 73 on reaching 65-66  will bounce to 112.

Take delivery from 67 and exit 75 % around 101, maintain stoploss of 91.75 for the remaining 25 %
exit at 111.

That is a 54 % gain and will happen in 3 months once buy initiated.

Dont know whether he really told but every body after it


Chris Flores says

Date a Girl/Guy Who Invests in the Stock Market (Ideal Wife/Husband)

Date a Girl Who Invests in the Stock Market

Date a girl who would rather buy shares of stock than the latest gadgets and apparel. When you take her out on dates, she might wear the same clothes over and over again, but learn not to mind it. Because beyond her very limited wardrobe is a well-diversified portfolio of blue-chip companies.

Date a girl who is financially literate because she doesn’t need you to date her. She knows that men are like stocks – there are so many options to choose from. So when she says yes to a date, it means she sees something in you. You’ll never have doubts with a girl who invests in the stock market because she’s already wealthy (or soon to be wealthy). You’re sure she won’t be interested in you for your money. She’ll love you not for what you have, but for who you really are.

Date a girl who understands the time value of money. She understands that the time you’ll spend together is the most important thing in your relationship. She won’t ask for expensive gifts and gestures, because she knows that these things will depreciate in value in the future. She’ll be happy to stay at home with you and watch DVDs, rather than go to the movies. She knows all too well that the value of spending P1,000 a month on “monthsaries” for 20 years is more than P1 Million. She’d rather spend her time with you at home, so she can invest her money on your dream home.

Date a girl who does peso-cost averaging. She’ll stick with you until the end, no matter what happens. She’ll wait for you even if you don’t know where the relationship is going. She’ll be committed to you even if your life goes in a downward direction because she knows that’s the greatest opportunity for your relationship to grow. She’ll stay by your side in good times and in bad, because she believes in who you are and who you can be.

You’ll continually be inspired by a girl who does peso-cost averaging. She’s full of hopes and dreams, even if the past has been cruel to her. When life gives her an obstacle, she’ll never give up. In fact, she’ll be happier; she has learned very early on that challenges are merely opportunities that make us better people. She knows that the bigger the obstacle, the bigger the reward.

Date a girl who trades in the stock market. She’ll be prepared for anything that could happen. Can’t make it on a date? She’ll understand. Want to suddenly go to a party? She’ll be there in 5 minutes. Sudden change of plans will never anger her – that’s because she knows what to do in case things don’t go as planned.

It’s easy to date a girl who trades in the stock market. You’ll be able to argue with her using logic. And even if you win, she won’t get angry. She’ll swallow her pride and accept the loss. That’s because she knows your relationship is far more important.

A girl who invests in the stock market will be the rarest girl you’ll meet here in the country. So when you find her: love her and never let her go. Invest your time understanding her. Invest your money creating beautiful memories with her. Follow this advice, and your life will better forever.


Date a Guy Who Invests

Date a guy who has a passion for investing; a guy with goals, targets and a direction in life. He’s a decision maker, he knows what he wants in life and if he wants you, he wants you for good.

Date a guy who appreciates the value of money. He won’t always have the latest gadgets nor constantly treat you in a fancy restaurant, but he dreams of bigger things for the both of you. He plans to give you your dream home where you and your future family will be more than comfortable. When he sees you having a hard time walking when you’re in your heels or gets frustrated going to a certain place especially during rainy nights, he’ll save and invest for a car for the both of you.

He might not be very good with fashion, but he will be more than happy to take advice from you as long as the price of clothes is within the budget. He knows that the finer things in life need money and he wants to give them to you. He’ll be busy making money grow instead of flirting with other girls.

Date a guy who invests in the long term. He understands the bigger picture of your relationship. He knows that there may be bad times, but in the long run you’ll still be happy together. He will trust and love you and won’t be affected much by jealousy.

Date a guy who observes the current inflation rate. He cares about what’s happening in the market, a concerned citizen, a patriot if you may. If you want to start a business or a new idea, you can talk to him about it. He enjoys mature topics. Oh, he’ll definitely get along well with your parents.

Date a guy who invests in the stock market. He’s exciting and interesting. He enjoys thrills and won’t bore you. At the same time, he’s prepared during a calamity. He’ll be able to cope and think of the next step to do instead of just waiting. He’s flexible because he knows things don’t always go as planned. It may not look like it, but he’s not hard to please. He appreciates the little things and takes joy in them because he knows that they build up to something great.

Don’t be afraid to voice your opinions to him, he values them greatly and takes them into consideration. He’s very understanding and patient which he acquired from his experience in investing. At times that you come late on your dates, he won’t be mad at you. If the both of you were supposed to go out this weekend but you’re suddenly unavailable, he’ll understand, with the right reasons, of course.

A guy who invests is a rare breed. If you see one, capture his heart and see him invest in you and make your love grow more than double. Now that’s a good ROI (Return of Investment)!

GBPUSD

Possible trend reversal points.

1.54937
1.52004
1.49095
1.46217
1.43366

FX : EURUSD

Crude oil formula is not working with other commodities and  in FX.
Spending lot of hours to study the pattern of EURUSD.

I am writing here the possible profit taking and reversal of trend points.
We can see it in few days whether this works out.

As far as EURUSD concerned, the trend is down and can go below.

Please note these pips :

1.145604
1.120409
1.095453
1.070798
1.046424
1.022331
0.998518
0.974986

Out of these, first and second level reached, somewhere around these points trend should change.

Friday 4 September 2015

There is no such thing called quick money making. But there is always a thing called losing money
quickly.

Apart from calculations, do see the chart with a weekly outlook using Hour 4 candles.
Never look at hourly and below time charts.

Crude :: Foundation done well upto 43.60.Crude stoploss moved to 43.30 from 37.50.


Tuesday 1 September 2015

Another thing I note is that there is no connection between trends and datas like inventory,growth.

Todays fall in oil attributed to China manufacturing contraction, slowing down of US economy
the two largest users of OIL. These datas are used in the middle of the trend to pull/push oil prices and not connected to the trend.





The situation is interesting.Earlier days in these conditions, I would have shorted oil and made some good profits as per my short term indicators.

I am more interested and sticking to working with trends and reversals.
In longer term perspective Trend reversal is there and it is continuing,
I am anxious but I have not exited my positions, I can see my profits washed.
As per my policy, I hold my positions till I get reversal signals or my targets.

It may look strange, but I have worked with some of the models, small profits, more tension.
Let me see myself how I perform.

will exit India nifty futures short at 7410


India Nifty future shorts and put options running good


MCX Target looks like exit at 3441- crude oil


CRUDE OIL MY EXIT TARGET IS 52.50. SEE CHART.


To me : CRUDE TREND REVERSL : I couldnt resist posting ideas on my revised Trend reversal ; I have only one confirmation level that crude likely TO REVERSE around 65.75 +0..25 / -0.25, but need more to prove


I understand to win we need two :

One ; Money to manipulate the market at times when the market undecided of direction you create huge positions on long or short and exit safe or whenever  strong bull /bear sentiment rules,ride the tide.
Two : We have to think ahead of the market,predict and wait for the trend change and jump.Stick to your conviction without bothering short term movements.

All financial instruments have  particular pattern movement practised by market movers.They do not do in random.If you can seriously work and identify those patterns,there is money.

It seems unknowingly I worked all these months on the second principle.So far I am not a fulltime trader but the recent wins make me to think I should take up full time trading.

Let me keep things simple.


nifty