Saturday 6 October 2018

XAUUSD :; Will keep $1219 as stop and short term target $1108


NIFTY

Congestion   zone : 9685
Nifty  FIB  0.618  : 9516
Nifty PE study(20.5): 9485

NIFTY : Congestion Zone study: First line of defence - 10100 ; Second Line of Defence: 9685


Why I wait 9500 Nifty to buy

On 28th Aug 2018, Nifty 50 hit ATH of 11760 and the NSE website shows NIFTY PE: 28.72 the prior day 27th Aug and on that day 28th Aug it is 28.66.  It worked out to =11760/28.72= 409.50 as EPS of Nifty.

FY-19 forward EPS if we take it 13% growth, 409.50 will become 462.70

The standard market sentiment of PE of 20.50 x 462.70 = 9485 Nifty value.

This corresponds to my 61.8 correction at 9485-9515.

Will patiently wait for 9500.

Courtesy: Kirubakaran Rajendran, Stock Market Trader,Founder - www.squareoff.in


NSE NIfty PE Chart (P/E Ratio) for last 10 years


I have read an post about Nifty PE sometime back in a forum, let me share it here.Below is the Nifty P/E chart for the last 10 years.This is a very important chart for both technical and fundamental analysts. It gives an indication of when to Buy and When to Sell Nifty. Very useful for long term equity investors to time entry and exit in equity markets. P/E chart gives indication of when valuations are cheap and when valuations are peaking. This in-turn gives valuable insight on when to Buy and when to Sell.
You should not judge a stock by its P/E alone, but the Nifty index P/E alone is a pretty conclusive data. Checkout below for proof of that.
Lets analyse the above graph for more insight. All time low of Nifty P/E is 10.68 in 2008 during recession. Belows the Nifty P/E lows or support levels in the last 10 years. These are excellent levels to buy.
Nifty P/E below 13 is a big BUY any-day.
All time high of Nifty P/E is 28.47 in 2000. Belows the Nifty P/E peaks or resistance levels in the last 10 years. These are best levels to SELL. Nifty P/E above 24 is a big SELL any-day.
Current Nifty PE Ratio on 11-Nov-2016 is 22.02
Nifty PE ratio measures the average PE ratio of the Nifty 50 companies covered by the Nifty Index. PE ratio is also known as "price multiple" or "earnings multiple". If P/E is 15, it means Nifty is 15 times its earnings. Nifty is considered to be in oversold range when Nifty PE value is below 14 and it's considered to be in overvalued range when Nifty PE is near or above 22. The market quickly bounces back from the oversold region because intelligent investors start buying stocks looking to snatch up bargains and they do the exact opposite when Nifty P/E is in the overbought region.
Recent research done by my firm shows just how dangerous it is to remain invested in an expensive market. Since NSE started, every time when Nifty's Price/Earnings ratio exceeded 22, the average return from Indian equities over the subsequent three years became negative.
so the picture you mentioned in the question is really valid.
Happy Investing!

Demo A/c : Oct 06


Wednesday 26 September 2018

Nifty fib - 10360, buy on dips 10122

RatioPrice
16255
15890
14935
13755
13305
12715
12125
11760
11621
11535
11465
11395
11309
11240
11170
11084
11031
10945
10875
10719
10650
10580
10355
10215
9625
9470
7128
RatioPrice
16247.00
14341.00
13752.00
13527.00
13302.00
13163.00
12938.00
11760.00
11689.91
11621.00
11535.00
11396.00
11310.00
11240.50
11171.00
11085.01
11032.00
10946.00
10876.50
10807.00
10652.09
10582.00
10357.00
10218.00
9993.00
7273.00
6823.00
11760.00
10360.68
8984.88
7268.06
4492.94
2776.12
1388.56
1.00


Demo A/c Sep 26


Saturday 22 September 2018

Bank Nifty - Could be Worst performer in this correction - MAY RETEST 52 WEEK LOW ???

Heavy weight HDFC Bank will crack below 1900 

Don't you think Nifty 1000 pts shocks are BETTER than 2500 pts crash. The built in corrections are better than crash, in my view. Do you agree ?


Nifty - Somewhere around 10650, it may find a bottom and waiting to buy there.


NIFTY CONSTITUENTS: My view.

It is time for regulators to look into designing of Nifty. In best managed Indices like US 30, they are designed to go up. Look at the non stop movement of US 30  from 17500 - 26700. Does it mean that US Economy is going strong and they reduce their debts ? On the contrary,their debts are increasing. Then how come its Index is going high and Nifty correcting? Various reasons can be put forward for this. Because of NIFTY crash always looming large in the minds of investors, retailers hesitate to participate in equity. Like US 30 where you simply set aside your savings in ETF's as the Index is designed to go up always., it is time for regulators to look into Nifty constituents.

If the Nifty is properly designed and more ETF's are planned with minimal fees, income tax for capitals gains accrued from ETF's  are slashed, no doubt,savings from Bank and black money will flow into ETF's . Our internal strength in INDIA NIFTY will be augmented.

C.A.D., USD-INR., Crude prices are temporary phase. Planting the positive feeling about our Indices in our own people is the best one, so that our people move away from safety feeling of investing in Bank F.D.,Household Gold ornaments, Black money stacking and and unorganized lending to investing in our stockmarket.

When Bond yields rise, Private NBFC housing finance companies borrow short term commercial papers at higher rate of interest and lending it longer tenure is almost remind me of the subprime crisis,

The 2008 crisis has reminded some of the large equity holders to dump DHFL when it was learnt they recently bought commercial papers at 11% which was relayed to IndiaBulls housing. Ind due course the overvalued stocks deserved the correction. DHFL was available at Price / Book : 1,  Book value 274 and low was  around 276 which was a serious buy. As Warren buffet said, one shoukd have the courage to buy during the crash. Those who bought around 280 levels are the kings of values, and those who sold at 610 levels are too. 

DEMO A/c :Sep 22


Wednesday 19 September 2018

Nifty IT index - Alternate

What we missed and where Warren Buffet and Rakesh Jhunjhuwala scored.

Min.23.6 annual CAGR before tax, from the day they started investing,Just calculate.

Stock-market is simple and is not as complex as you think.

Rule is that if you can understand value of one unit of your currency, you will surely stand to understand where to keep it. in Locker,in Bank, in Deposits,in Bonds,in Stocks,in Indices AFTER understanding the value of one unit of your currency keeping it in above. That's all.But if you want to understand the market noises, you will be nowhere. Our Veda's preach ,understand one's selfness or who you are.

Jahangir Aziz, JPMORGAN , Interview -CNBC TV-18 today, is the real thing happening in Indian Economy


NASDAQ-100

Demo A/c 19th Sep


Tuesday 18 September 2018

Catch the BALL around 25450

Saturday, 15 September 2018

Nifty Bank: My view is Nifty bank will reverse from 27450 and will fail to cross 27500. I have a target but before I wait to see if My view is correct or not.


Demo a/c ; Sep 19. New buy US30


Thursday 13 September 2018

Tuesday 4 September 2018

XAUUSD

1021 - 1026 My Firm Target and it completes the downward cycle. be prepared.

Monday 3 September 2018

MCX CRUDE

The new strategy has done exceptionally well in paper July,August: 21 trades, 20 trades profit with one loss. Real trading started today.

Sunday 19 August 2018

Short Term Ideas

SYMBOL CMP TARGET Percent %
GAIL 388.4 447.4                   15.18
SBIN 302.2 354.6                   17.33
TECHM 688.4 851.6                   23.70
MINDTREE 1030 1242.2                   20.60
ZENSAR 1372 1548.8                   12.89
YESBANK 395.6 427.8                     8.13
INFY 1375 1678.0                   22.04
TCS 1975 2418.6                   22.46
KPIT 296.5 348.5                   17.54
LTTS 1605 2049.6                   27.70

Friday 17 August 2018

Number theory : Source : Chakra vyuga< Mahabharat >

1 0.142857142857 0.142857142857
2 0.142857142857 0.285714285714
3 0.142857142857 0.428571428571
4 0.142857142857 0.571428571428
5 0.142857142857 0.714285714285
6 0.142857142857 0.857142857142
7 0.142857142857 0.999999999999
8 0.142857142857 1.142857142856
9 0.142857142857 1.285714285713
10 0.142857142857 1.428571428570
11 0.142857142857 1.571428571427
12 0.142857142857 1.714285714284
13 0.142857142857 1.857142857141
14 0.142857142857 1.999999999998
15 0.142857142857 2.142857142855
16 0.142857142857 2.285714285712
17 0.142857142857 2.428571428569
18 0.142857142857 2.571428571426
19 0.142857142857 2.714285714283
20 0.142857142857 2.857142857140
21 0.142857142857 2.999999999997
22 0.142857142857 3.142857142854
23 0.142857142857 3.285714285711
24 0.142857142857 3.428571428568
25 0.142857142857 3.571428571425
26 0.142857142857 3.714285714282
27 0.142857142857 3.857142857139
28 0.142857142857 3.999999999996

nifty