MCX target reached- open now - weekly trading ideas for the week May 12 -16.

Oil & Gas News

Chinese crude oil imports rose to a record high of 27.88mln tonnes in April, according to customs. China’s imports in April were 6.78mbpd from March which dipped below 6mbpd for the first time since November last year. Demand for oil lifted by new refinery and stockpile needs. (BBG

Libyan rebels reject talks with the PM keeping two major export terminals shut. The rebels warned of potential action is Tripoli does not fulfil its part of agreements. The PM commented that the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament undermined the agreement. (RTRS)

Energy Aspects cuts French, Dutch and Belgian gas use forecasts by 10.1bnm this year vs. Prev. 9.6bcm. Adding that demand in 2015 will rise by 4.6bnm and 1.3bcm in 2016.

Mcx

R 1	R2	R 3	R 4	R 5
6025	6045	6064	6084	6103
S 1	S 2	S 3	S 4	S 5
5967	5948	5929	5909	5890

Nymex

R 1	R 2		R 3	R4
101.5	101.75		102.01	102.26
S 1	S 2		S 3	S 4
100.75	100.50		100.25	100.00
High(Rs)		Low(Rs)
6055		5965
6035		5977
6060		6000
6059		5992
6069		5988

Retracements
138.2%	107.0338
100% (a)	104.1
76.4%	102.2875
61.8%	101.1662
50%	100.26
38.2%	99.3538
23.6%	98.2325
0% (b)	96.42

Downtrend
High (a) Low (b) Custom (c) Calculate

Retracements
138.2%	108.2174
100% (a)	103.45
76.4%	100.5047
61.8%	98.6826
50%	97.21
38.2%	95.7374
23.6%	93.9153
0% (b)	90.97
Uptrend High (b) Low (a) Custom (c) Calculate Retracements 0% (b) 104.1 23.6% 101.0013 38.2% 99.0843 50% 97.535 61.8% 95.9857 76.4% 94.0687 100% (a) 90.97 138.2% 85.9543 Extensions 261.8% 138.4743 200% 130.36 161.8% 125.3443 138.2% 122.2457 100% 117.23 61.8% 112.2143
Downtrend High (a) Low (b) Custom (c) Calculate Retracements 138.2% 107.0338 100% (a) 104.1 76.4% 102.2875 61.8% 101.1662 50% 100.26 38.2% 99.3538 23.6% 98.2325 0% (b) 96.42

99.75, 99.35  buy for target of 101.6, 102.10

1024

1016.01

1008.06

1000.14

992.25

99.78

99.57

99.37

98.75

  BUY                     SELL  ,101.55,102.20

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s analysis for today, in case West Texas Intermediate June future breaches the first resistance level at $100.84, it probably will continue up to test $101.41. Should the second key resistance be broken, the US benchmark will most likely attempt to advance to $101.90.

If the contract manages to breach the first key support at $99.78, it will probably continue to drop and test $99.29. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to $98.72.

The light sweet crude markets went back and forth during the previous week, essentially settling nothing. If anything, the only thing that we have settled is that the $100 level is where the market seems to be the most comfortable at the moment. Doesn’t really matter though, ultimately we are in an uptrend and we don’t see anything the changes that on this chart. With that being the case, break above the top of the candle for the past week sends us going long in this marketplace, something that we think will ultimately happen anyways. A break above there since the market to the $104 level, and a break above there in sub with the market going to the $105 level. Any pullback at this point in time should offer buying opportunities, unless of course we somehow manage to break down below the $97 level, something that we don’t foresee happening anytime soon.

				Classic		Woodie's	Camarilla	DeMark's
Resistance 4							101.3385
Resistance 3				103.48			100.7143
Resistance 2				102.33		102.3375	100.5062
Resistance 1				101.21		101.225	100.2981	101.77
Pivot Point				100.06		100.0675
Support 1				98.94		98.955	99.8819	99.5
Support 2				97.79		97.7975	99.6738
Support 3				96.67			99.4658
Support 4							98.8415
R 1	R 2	R 3	R 4		R 5
100.50	100.75	101.00	101.25		101.50
S1	S 2	S 3	S 4		S 5
99.75	99.50	99.25	99.00		98.75
R1	R 2	R 3	R 4		R 5
101.60	102.40	103.20	104.00		104.81
S 1	S 2	St 3	S 4		S 5
99.22	98.43	97.65	96.87		96.1

Next week probable highs   – 101.30, 102.07

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Falling top

104.10

102.2

101.14

99.35 – terminated,

High/Low/Range Statistics
Trading Days	High	Low	Range	Range %	Average Range	Average Range %	Close %	New High	New Low	Average Volume
5	101.18	98.91	2.27	2.3%	1.27	1.3%	48%	True	False	247,057

Bull smell

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My view is that

98.74 only once touched. ( during US trading hours)

99.35 many times price hovered around.

99.35 most of the trading period price stayed above.

Other markets Asian and European are comfortable.

Next  level 99.75, fairly upholded. During trading last week.

100.10 -100.40 slightly resisted, middle of the week.

Price tried to breach many times 100.40.

Once traded abv 100.55, it flew to reach the PP 101.14.

Cant hold there, looked for support at 100.40,  but had that only at 100.10.

It means Ground floor is 99.35, first floor 99.75 and second floor 100.10.

In the last 5 days, this 101.18 is new high, which means some buying interest seen.

At the same time heavy selling came at 101.15 shows a strong resistance.

This shows market is volatile. As US market is on strong sell side, buy only during US trading hours and sell during China – closing and Europe markets running.

Buy only during US trading hours means, look for support levels of US market

and are 99.75, 99.35

sell during China – closing and Europe markets running, look for resistance levels

101.60. 102.20.       

I strongly suspect Chinese Market used by Russians effectively

To counter US moves.US cannot match Russia – China combine.

So some of the US speculators may turn positive on crude this

week, as evidenced by move past 101.00 in Nymex.

MCX

   My trading ideas for the week May 12 -16

BUY- MCX

Next week probable low -  5940 -5930    - allot -25% of planned trading lot

Next week intermediate probable low - 5962 - 5973 - allot - 55% of planned trading lot

Next week high probable low – 5980-5982 – allot -20% of planned trading lot

Buy only during US trading hours means, look for support levels of US market

SELL –  MCX

 Next week probable high  - 6124 - 6133 - allot -20% of planned trading lot

Next week intermediate probable high – 6078 -6093 - allot - 55% of planned trading lot

Next week low probable high  - 6040 - allot -25% of planned trading lot

Sell during China – closing and Europe markets running, look for resistance levels

DO NOT WAIT FOR EXACT LEVELS, PLUS / MINUS FEW POINTS WILL HELP YOU.

Buy after data release in US markets after 9 pm, Sell in middle of Europe market time around 3 pm

Buy 5982 / 5968 for Target of 6080 / 6120

No big bullish factor seen, so trade with 20-25% of your capital. Exit if trade reverses but I don’t see bearish market

Crude Updates : 10.06 am 12.05.2014

INR trading 59.65

Modify your levels__

Buy 99.70/99.55/99.35 for Target of 101.30/101.55 /102.15

MCX - BUY  5952, 5943 , 5930  for Target keep INR in mind trade with Nymex levels.

Trade wisely,
ANNADURAI

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 Crude updates dated 13 /05 /2014 - 7.00 a.m

Yesterday my calls given at Ideal levels but due to INR 59.65,looking to touch 59.50, I sent an update , wait for still lower levels. If you  can play with min.3 lots, it would be ideal levels to buy. We, including me , missed the chance of earning Rs 36,000.

BUY @ 6025 ( 1-5 lots ) 5995 (1-5 lots ) 5967 (1-5 lots )

TARGET  6064 /6084 / 6103.

Trade wisely

Annadurai.