Ukraine’s new President Petro Poroshenko with wife
The voter turnout was an unprecedented 60 percent despite the virtual disenfranchisement of an
estimated 20 percent
of voters in Donetsk, Lugansk, and annexed Crimea due violent
separatist sabotage. Adjusting for the ballot burning, poll closing and
physical intimidation yields a turnout in the neighborhood of an
unprecedented 70 percent.
Sunday May 25 will go down in history as a proud day for Ukraine and
sends a vivid signal that Ukraine’s people want stability, peace, and
prosperity. The results also lay bare the narrow reach of the
Russian-backed terrorists, who appear to hold sway only over the
troubled Donbass.
The May 25 election will also be remembered for its naked brutality
and violence. Russian-backed separatists intimidated electoral
commissions into quitting, threatened to shoot intrepid voters, and
closed down voting stations. According to the
Kyiv Post live update,
no polling stations were open in Donetsk, and only a few in remote
towns and villages in the Donetsk region. Polling workers fled in panic
at one of the few open voting stations when Ukrainian soldiers arrived
to vote. They thought they were being attacked by the pro-Russian Little
Green Men.
Pro-Russian separatists destroying election urns for the press in Donetsk
So much for the election results. Let’s turn to its consequences, especially Vladimir Putin’s reaction.
Vladimir Putin declared ambiguously on Friday, at his annual
Petersburg meeting with foreign business executives, that he will
“respect” the election results. As Putin continued his use of linguistic
tricks to stave off the sanctions threatened if he disrupted the
election, his proxies in east Ukraine were preparing to engage in
Goebbels-like
totaler Krieg against the election.
Putin’s fiction that he holds no sway over separatist forces in south
and east Ukraine is wearing thin. He feigned innocence when the
self-appointed officials of the self-proclaimed Peoples Republic of
Donetsk held their May 11 independence referendum, supposedly, despite
his recommendation to delay. (Notably,
Putin’s press secretary declined to define Putin’s position on the referendum, while emphasizing its overwhelming support for independence).
Putin’s assertions of “no control over separatists” have become even
more unbelievable as pro-Russian separatists openly flaunt their Russian
citizenship, contract fighting in Chechnya (with possible war crimes),
their Russian military-intelligence backgrounds, and their common ties
to a mysterious Russian oligarch. (For examples, see; Radio Liberty
May 23, MKRU
May 16, Fontanka
May 21).
I suppose these Russian nationalists intend to return to Russia once
their Ukraine campaign is over. They must understand their actions
please Mr. Putin.
Putin’s dance reminds me of a puppet show for children. The
terrorists are the puppet, insulting ventriloquist Putin, who ruefully
turns to his European and American audience as if to say: Look what this
bad puppet is doing to innocent little me. The child audience reacts
by scolding the naughty puppet. In this case, the West feigns
gullibility to avoid taking tough measures against Putin, the put-upon
puppet master.
Sunday’s Ukrainian presidential election adds yet another act to Putin’s theater of the absurd.
Remember that Putin walked a tightrope for Sunday’s election. Both
the United States and Europe threatened Russia with real sanctions (as
outlined by
NEWSru)
if he disrupted the election. Acceptance of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) clean bill of health for the
election on Monday, as Angela Merkel and Europe
require, will be a bitter pill for Putin to swallow. He will comply
de jure but refuse
de facto.
Putin’s Ukraine campaign pursues two objectives: Keep Ukraine out of
Europe’s sphere of influence and snatch, at low cost, swaths of
southeast Ukraine and Moldova, in what he now calls New Russia. Both
objectives require the delegitimization of the provisional Ukrainian
government that replaced Kremlin-true Yanukovich.
To be specific: Putin’s avowed justification for his covert invasion
of east Ukraine was his humanitarian impulse to protect fellow Russians
from repression, murder, and even genocide. Any recognition of the
Ukrainian election dismantles Putin’s narrative of Russians in the east
who must be protected (and even annexed) from the crazed nationalist
extremists and neo-Nazis dispatched by Kiev. Poroshenko may be
pro-Europe, but it is hard to pin an extremist neo-Nazi label on him.
Putin is not about to surrender his “Kiev is illegitimate” mantra
without a fight, but he cannot openly reject the election results.
Hence, Putin will continue to use cat-and-mouse linguistics, which leave
him room to maneuver.
Note that Putin openly questioned the legitimacy of the May 25 election during his press conference (
Johnson List #115) at the Petersburg business forum only two days earlier.
In a testy exchange, the moderator (from MSNBC) asked Putin point blank:
MSNBC: “Can I ask you, just to put this on the record for your
audience here: Do you accept the legitimacy of the election that is
going to take place on Sunday in Ukraine?”
Putin: “There you go again! Time and again. Who found this guy
and brought him here? You know, we realize that people in Ukraine want
their country to get this drawn-out crisis over and done with, and,
without any doubt, we will respect the choice of the Ukrainian people.
Of course, we will keep track of the events.”
In other words, Putin refused to answer the question. He then went on to delegitimize the Sunday election:
Putin: “I’m not sure if you’re aware of it, but, strictly speaking,
no presidential elections can be held under the current constitution,
as President Yanukovych hasn’t left presidential office in a
constitutional manner… Strictly speaking, he’s still president under the
constitution. Wouldn’t it be easier to
hold a referendum, (and)
ensure human rights in the east and south of Ukraine? But those who are
in power in Kiev today have chosen a different path.”
This remarkable public repudiation of the Ukrainian election largely
escaped media notice, but not that of an astonished Ukrainian blogger
who posted (in Russian) a piece entitled “
Without jokes, without irony, Putin promises to respect the results of the Ukrainian election.”
Putin’s are not the words of someone, who intends to recognize and
abide by the results of Sunday’s election, but America and Europe look
the other way. They want the fig leaf to avoid real sanctions.
BTW, Putin’s Kremlin press service declared on May 12 (one day after
the so-called Peoples Republic of Donetsk referendum stamped as illegal
by the UN, Europe, and the United States) that “Russia relates ‘with
respect’
to the expression of the will of the people of Donetsk and Luhansk
oblasts, participating in the so-called referendum on the status of
regions declaring themselves ‘peoples republics’ after the change in
authority in Kiev. (See:
Voice of America report). I guess reporters should ask Mr. Putin which election he “
respects” more – the official Ukraine presidential election or the so-called referendums carried out by non-existent political entities.
It was left to Putin’s proxy, Prime Minister and ex-President Dimitry
Medvedev, to let the cat out of the bag in an interview with Bloomberg
TV. Medvedev declared that Yanukovich is healthy and is still president
of Ukraine. “Therefore it is not necessary to conduct an election.” And
now the key words as reported by
Segodnya:
“I can say that as a result of elections which will be in May, a part
of the people of Ukraine can express their opinion on this or another
candidacy. Of course, it is possible to relate to this position with
respect. Does this constitute an act of
recognition. No, it does not.”
The Russian media’s more restrained characterization of the May 25
election for its English-speaking audience is telling (See: RT
Ukraine presidential election timeline): “The early presidential election in Ukraine has started amid looming
civil war and
economic collapse, precipitated by a recent
power takeover and dispute with top trading partner Russia. Two eastern regions
have refused to take part in the election.”
So much for fair and balanced coverage.
What should we expect from Putin in the coming days and weeks? He
will continue to “respect” the election outcome. He will insist on
negotiations that include his self-appointed Russian-citizen mayors and
governors, but that the negotiations can only begin after Ukraine has
withdrawn its troops from regions occupied by the pro-Russian
separatists/terrorists. His proxies will continue to funnel
reinforcements to his beleaguered command and control centers in East
Ukraine, such as the arrival of the “Vostok battalion” in Donetsk. (See
You Tube
http://inforesist.org/video-foto-v-donecke-kavkazcev-vstrechali-krikami-geroi/)
Putin will continue to execute a war of attrition, keeping his options
open by destabilizing the Donbass for a later attack on the whole of New
Russia.
Poroshenko, for his part, must reject any “peace talks” that include
Putin’s Russian diversionaries. Nothing can come of this other than
delays that enable the separatists to solidify their gains. He must
consolidate the Ukrainian army and special forces under a central
command that incorporates informal militias formed during the
provisional government. The command and control centers of east Ukraine
must be attacked only by regular uniformed troops under a professional
command.
What Putin has done in east Ukraine will backfire, perhaps
immediately. World public opinion may be inattentive, but everyone in
Europe and North America detests bullying, election abuse, and
intimidation. Such images do not sit well with the civilized world.
Putin can continue to play his “I am not responsible” game, but it will
not find a receptive audience.
What Ukraine accomplished on May 25, 2014 is remarkable and world
public opinion will recognize this. We like to divide people into the
good and bad guys. The separatists will come out of Sunday’s events as
the bad guys. Putin cannot afford major PR failures in his battle for
public opinion. I believe he is about to suffer a major setback.
Courtesy: FORBES
May 27th, 2014 at 12:42 pm
May 27th, 2014 at 12:45 pm