Equities expensive valuation.negative rate of interests,failure of Fiscal stimuli bundled together will propel the prices of yellow and white metals by 18 - 23 % from current prices.

Shale oil producers who have temporarily stopped production when Oil hit 30 $,by now would have identified ways to reduce the production costs. This readiness give them confidence to produce more oil and allow oil to drift below 25$

If I ever visit U.S,it would be focused on Andrew Carnegie

I wont be surprised if crude hits 22$ and Gold hits 1639 in the long run.

July 29 - Evening UPDATE

	JULY 29  -	8.00 pm
	FXCM Prices	TRADE TRACK    SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.005			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.005			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.005			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15			1345.25			yes
	daily -M	1244.65			1345.25			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1345.25			yes
Silver	daily	16.346			20.234			yes
Copper	daily- S	2.0876			2.2168			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.2168			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.2168			yes

My winning ratio will be higher than any other system as I just use age old proven winning combination of EMA and RSI

July 29 - Morning UPDATE

	JULY 29  -	6.30 am
	FXCM Prices	TRADE TRACK    SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.069			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.069			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.069			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15			1337.39			yes
	daily -M	1244.65			1337.39			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1337.39			yes
Silver	daily	16.346			20.211			yes
Copper	daily- S	2.0876			2.2163			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.2163			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.2163			yes

July 28 : Evening UPDATE

	JULY 28  -	8.30 pm
	FXCM Prices	TRADE TRACK    SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.325			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.325			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.325			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15			1336.53			yes
	daily -M	1244.65			1336.53			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1336.53			yes
Silver	daily	16.346			20.245			yes
Copper	daily- S	2.0876			2.2118			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.2118			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.2118			yes

http://forbesindia.com/lists/super-50-companies-2016/1551/all

India's super 50 companies .

Look for smart gains by going long in Silver and Gold started their UPmove yesterday after US FED left benchmark policy rates unchanged at 0.2 %

JULY 28 - Morning UPDATE : much inconvenient to follow 4 H charts,hence stopped.

	JULY 28  -	8.00 am
	FXCM Prices	TRADE TRACK    SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		42.014			yes
	daily -M		46.8		42.014			yes
	daily-L		46.8		42.014			yes
Gold	daily- S		1332	1337 buy	1337.15	sell closed : loss 5.0 $		New Buy open
	daily -M	1244.65			1337.15			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1337.15			yes
Silver	daily- S		19.84	20.238 buy	20.238	sell closed: loss 0.398 $		closed
	daily -M	16.979			20.238			closed
	daily	14.021			20.238			closed
	daily	16.346			20.238			open
Copper	daily- S	2.0876			2.2042			open
	daily -M	2.0876			2.2042			open
	daily-L	2.0876			2.2042			open

JULY 27 Evening Update

JULY 27  -	8.30 Pm		TRADE TRACK    SHEET
			SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed      details
			BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
	Crude	daily- S		46.8		42.074
		daily -M		46.8		42.074
		daily-L		46.8		42.074
		4 Hour		48.68		42.074
	Gold	daily- S		1332		1327.07
		daily -M	1244.65			1327.07
		daily-L	1090.27			1327.07
		4 Hour		1359		1327.07
	Silver	daily- S		19.84		19.965
		daily -M	16.979			19.965
		daily-L	14.021			19.965
		4 Hour	19.616	19.594		19.965
	Copper	daily- S	2.0876			2.1918
		daily -M	2.0876			2.1918
		daily-L	2.0876			2.1918
		4Hour		2.2285		2.2323

Quality research: well managed buinesses over time : Economic Times

NSE : Q1 Strong results - can think of investing

STRONG RESULTS Ambuja, Zee, PI Inds, Ingersoll, Visaka Inds, Elecon Engg, IDFC, Aunde India, Ponni Sugars, Investment & Precision Castings, Canara Bank, Merck, JK Paper, Rane Engine, Himalay International, KG Denim, Hitachi Home, Eimco Elecon,Thyrocare, Tata Metaliks, Seshasayee Paper, Jayant Agro, Unichem Labs, Havells, Persistent Systems, Mphasis, Sanofi, Pneumatic Holdings, Eastern Treads, Rallis, Equitas, Hinduja Ventures,GNFC,Rane Brake, Heidelberg Cement,DB corp

Super results- Ambuja Cement -Q2 EBITDA Margin At 23.5% .

Heidelberg Cement Q1: good results Net Profit Of `26.3 Cr Vs `3.4 Cr EBITDA Up 70.9% EBITDA Margin At 18.8% Vs 11.8%

DB corp - super results Q1 Cons Net Profit up 61.4% Cons EBITDA up 51.5% Cons EBITDA Margin At 31.8% Vs 25.3% (YoY)

Excellent results from Ingersoll Rand Q1: EBITDA At Rs 11.5 Cr Vs Rs 0.7 Cr (YoY)
GNFC - v strong results EBITDA +54% At Rs 163.7 Cr Vs Rs 106.3 Cr (YoY) .

Rane Brake - v good results Net profit up 119% at Rs 10.5 cr EBIDTA up 61%; margins at 14.7% Vs 10.6% Total income up 17%

Zee Tele: good results Ad revenue growth of 19% ahead EBIDTA ahead PAT impacted due to one-off

IDFC bank – super results Q1 PAT at Rs 265 cr Vs DB est of 185 cr Q1 NII at Rs 499 cr Vs DB est of 443 cr GNPA down 1%

Symphony - good results Topline up 38% at 152 cr Gross margin at 57.8% vs 57.2% PAT up 40% at 31 c.

NIIT LTD - v strong margins improvement EBIDTA up 36%; margins at 9% vs 7%


Bajaj Finance - BIG BEAT Q1 NII up 45% Vs exp 36.1% growth PAT up 54% Vs exp 38.8% growth 1:1 bonus and 1:5 stock split

CLSA initiates on Adani Transmission with a target of `55 ie 46% upside

Sudarshan Chemicals: Morgan Stanley Asia buys 3.5lk shares @ 288.53/sh
Satin Credit: Morgan Stanley Asia buys 3.2 lk shares @579.49/sh

VV STRONG RESULTS from Transformers & Rectifiers Sales 160 cr Vs 63 cr EBIDTA margin + 8% Vs - 30%

V strong results from Shanthi Gears & Sumeet Industries

GHCL - strong results Net Profit up 67% EBITDA up 28.4% EBITDA Margin At 26.5% Vs 24.2%

Kalyani steels Q1 revnues at 417 vs 374 pat at 47 vs 29 margins at 21% vs 15.5%

Pincon Spirits Q1 Net profit at `9.1 cr vs `5.7 cr, up 59% (YoY) Net sales at `309 cr vs `231 cr, up 34% (YoY) Margins at 6.7% vs 5.3%

Max India -Nomura bought 16 lk shares; Rel MF bought 55 lk shares on FRIDAY,July 24.

Emkay Global: @porinju buys 13 lk shares at `78.68/sh

BULK DEALS UFO Moviez 3i Research sells 26.64 lk shares at `536.24/sh SBI MF buys 2.08 lk shares at `536.1/sh Reliance Capital buys 2 lk.

Reliance Life Insurance buys 1.61 lk shares MNYL Life buys 2.30 lk DSP Blackrock MF buys 5.94 lk

MS ON OMC Find valuations undemanding with FY18e EV/EBITDA at 5.5x, P/E at 8x Assume GRMs of ~$5.5-6/bbl in F17/18 vs $6.5/bbl in F16.
Upgrade IOC to Oveweight from Equalweight, Target `645 from `445 Maintain Overweight on HPCL, Target `1536 from 1001.
Maintain Overweight on BPCL, Target `749 from `545


IFB Inds revenues up 19%, PAT up 43%, Margins at 6% vs 6.3%
Chemfab revenues up 33%, PAT up 287%, Margins at 36.7% vs 18.7%
Thangamayil Jewellery: Radhakishan Damani owned Derive buys 2.5 lk shares at `278.
Star Ferro & Cement: Sundaram BNP fund buys 15.8 lk shares at `103, Promoters sellers.
Century Ply: Norges Bank buys 12 lk shares at `225; Promoters sellers.
L&T Infotech: Kotak Mahindra International buys 13.3 lk shares at `700.
Shriram City Union: Fast EM Fund buys 6.5 lk shares at `1900 Shriram City Union: FIL Investments buys 3.4 lk shares at `1900.
Shriram City Union: Northwest Venture Partners sells 16.4 lk shares at `1900

JULY -27 : Morning update

JJULY 27  -	7.30 AM		TRADE TRACK    SHEET
			SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details
			BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
	Crude	daily		46.8		42.879
		4 Hour		48.68		42.879
	Gold	daily		1332		1316.75
		4 Hour		1359		1316.75
	Silver	daily		19.84
		4 Hour	19.616	19.594	Sell	19.594	Buy reversed to sell		Loss: 0.022
	Copper	daily	2.0876			2.2323
		4Hour		2.2285		2.2323

Booked 25% at 42.40 as posted earlier.

Friday, 8 July 2016

Looking to buy @ 42.40

If my idea of correction in global markets happen, the money which catapulted oil to 50$ may book profits in Oil too. In that case we can see US OIL @ 42 $

From Aug 01, Trade Track sheets will be available twice daily with buy sell updation to subscribers .

Jul-26	12 noon		TRADE TRACK    SHEET
			SIGNAL	STATUS	Trade closed details
			BUY @	Sell @
	Crude	daily		46.8
		4 Hour		48.68
	Gold	daily		1332
		4 Hour		1359
	Silver	daily		19.84
		4 Hour	19.616
	Copper	daily	2.0876
		4Hour		2.2285

Yields better when 4 H and daily chart signals are traded.

JULY 26 Further update

Copper ; Analyse the chart

update : 26 july

FX : USD CAD T- 1 : 1.32970 for Buy and may present a selling opportunity to be confirmed by signals

US30 : View. A sell can be initialed in small quantities based on 4H chart and completed shark pattern ??? of day chart. As per daily chart I am waiting for the confirmation signals

FX : AUDUSD - Nice SELL formed. Study chart

update

MCX crude

US OIL

Final set up : XTI - Disciplined approach and money management

After few years of well searched indicators and money management,trying out various strategies,
an Indicator tweaked by a coder as per my request is put into use.The primary aim is to multiply money with ease of work,no data requirement, compatible with any broker MT5.MT4.

		Investments
TradingChart	Daily	20%
TradingChart	Weekly	55%
	Reserves	25%
	Total	100%

.

Now the set up is final and making profits,Indicator tweaked, money management set.

Cheers.

Gold charts

You can pay and register your email ID with me for daily updates to close the trade.For clarifications contact me: updowncrude@gmail.com

US OIL : SELL CALL( see chart )

MCX SELL CALL : CRUDE BETWEEN 3015 - 3080 SL 3275.

US OIL: MCX Crude : Advisory service:

I am resuming my advisory services after I made money in Oil using simple techniques.
No complex algorithms,dead data. I was so comfortable with my daily chart, not glued to Monitor, not disturbing my day to day activities.This I want to share with people who follow my blog .

The charges are 2% of the profits, Rs.2600 or 39.95 $ upfront and the balance  within a week on closing the trade.

From My end, whoever subscribes, the chart will be updated on daily basis to their Email ID without copy paste stories, Trade closed will be intimated to their Mobile phone as well,if they miss to see their mail.

I do not expect much draw-down but it is a must to keep reserves atleast 5 % of the value of the contract.

The advisory services starts from today .

US OIL : Why I am bearish ? Sell signal both on daily and weekly charts

NIFTY TRADES OPPOSITE TO MY POSITION. I have to hold

I see in media crash in Dow 30 anytime, but my calculations point to 19340 where you can see a good correction which requires portfolio hedging.

Trade at your own risk :These are my views :It is time to create shorts in a small way in US OIL for my primary target of 20.87 - 21.24 as already explained few months ago in this blog.

with suitable hedging.

Keeping SL 8550 ( SPOT), Long trades can be initiated in Nifty FUT for targets of 8736 (spot) and 8786 (spot)

India Nifty: Tomorrow will open abv 8600, I will exit my option trades @ 8735 - 8785

I see my self no point in trading narrow zones US oil and Gold. But active in stock market

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-whos-driving-stocks-to-record-heights-2016-07-12?link=sfmw_fb

US OIL INVESTORS : The price to scale is 99.45 (.9,8.118 of 3.4) time frame later.

Investors as already written strong zone buys can hold for 99.45 to exit

XAU ;consider fresh investments 1293 - 1297 for 1431

Looking to buy @ 42.40

If my idea of correction in global markets happen, the money which catapulted oil to 50$ may book profits in Oil too. In that case we can see US OIL @ 42 $

US OIL : 43.80 - 46.20 Strong buy zone, Precious metals and stocks that are not exposed to currency volatility will outperform.

Todays shopping

GHCL

UJJIVAN

ESSELPRO

EQUITAS

VIJAYABANK

CUB

THANGAMAYIL

ASIAN GRANITO

GABRIEL INDIA

AMRUTANJAN

http://microcapclub.com/2014/08/the-conviction-to-hold/

My buy list on Nifty correction

				% upside		3,23,800.00		no.of
	Security Name	LTP	TARGET	potential		amt allocation	Buy @	shares
1	KARURVYSYA	527.65	574.4	11.39%	5.28%	17,089.43	515.65	33
2	MARICO	271.65	300.8	12.30%	5.70%	18,451.79	267.85	69
3	WHIRLPOOL	846.4	942	13.36%	6.19%	20,035.34	831.00	24
4	RAMKY	88	96.6	13.65%	6.32%	20,469.81	85.00	241
5	CUB	124.35	136.3	13.92%	6.45%	20,872.59	119.65	174
6	DEEPAKNI	93.1	103.9	15.00%	6.95%	22,494.99	90.35	249
7	HINDALCO	123.6	138.8	16.64%	7.71%	24,957.03	119.00	210
8	GHCL	193.85	221.3	16.75%	7.76%	25,124.34	189.55	133
9	UJJIVAN	426.6	499.2	18.86%	8.74%	28,284.64	420.00	67
10	ESSELPRO	216.65	267.9	24.60%	11.40%	36,905.57	215.00	172
11	EQUITAS	187.8	235.2	26.93%	12.47%	40,392.42	185.30	218
12	VIJAYABANK	43.65	57.1	32.48%	15.05%	48,722.04	43.10	1,130
				215.87%	215.87%

nifty to test 8180 this week / 8010 this july series

xau - 1431 is nearing

If my idea of correction in global markets happen, the money which catapulted oil to 50$ may book profits in Oil too. In that case we can see US OIL @ 42 $

We just cannot be bullish in uncertain market conditions. But I am cautious. 

17350 could be downside for DJIA

DAX will test 9020

NIKKEI will test 14300

BY USING THE TABLE OF NIFTY PUBLISHED IN TRADINGAXESBLOGSPOT.COM

I was looking at Nifty whether it crosses 8387. when it started to drop, exited 90% of my portfolio at 8355.

Happy INDEPENDENCE DAY America

11860 is my major exit in India Nifty, where i will think of shorting Nifty when the greed could be expectedly high

India nifty :will move to 8730 , a small correction after it, before hitting strong resistance 9080. After brexit strong consolidation happened. however 8328 is 0.0140 overshot of 8280. That indicates buying hesitation on the large side.

7th pay commission, Monsoon, GST Bill pass , earnings improvement, strong rupee  are the five factors for the Nifty to scale the last high 9100, out of five, 7th pay commission recommendation  accepted by Govt and will be implemented , RBI strongly monitors and whenever required sells $ to stabilize the currency Rupee and it is clear, will be around 67.50 - 67.80 and less and only three more pending and they will be executed and known by August / September.

Expect  a small correction around 8730 before hitting 9080.
Will exit full portfolio @ 9080.

US oil : will exit @ 53.70, short 53.80

xau usd :1430 target set for exit. 1431 is short