Sunday, 30 April 2017
Saturday, 29 April 2017
Friday, 28 April 2017
Tuesday, 25 April 2017
My Stock Scan - 25 April
| Sr. | Stock Name | Symbol | Price | Add | stop | Target |
| 1 | Ece Industries Limited | ECEIND | 242.7 | 232 | 206 | 311 |
| 2 | Harrisons Malayalam Limited | HARRMALAYA | 87.7 | 80 | 74.5 | 103 |
| 3 | Welspun Corp Limited | WELCORP | 84.85 | 78.85 | 70.40 | 116 |
TrendLine- Longterm / FIB 0.236 matched 1295. Bullish speculations /positions couldnt get past 1295 till now.
The liquidity pumped in by central banks last year seems to be working with the main GDP countries
surviving and underlying stock markets confidence erase out occasional rhetoric's by the political heads.
GOLD if it breaks 1295, it can see 1550,1645,1720, at the same time GOLD if breaks below bottom line of 1263, sub 1000 ( 930) seen in coming years with crashes seen below 1165,1115 and 1050.
The trendline break is the key.
surviving and underlying stock markets confidence erase out occasional rhetoric's by the political heads.
GOLD if it breaks 1295, it can see 1550,1645,1720, at the same time GOLD if breaks below bottom line of 1263, sub 1000 ( 930) seen in coming years with crashes seen below 1165,1115 and 1050.
The trendline break is the key.
NIFTY METAL RELATIVE VALUATION BETTER,STICK TO IT.
| Indice | P/E | P/B | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY 50 | 23.41 | 3.52 | 1.25 |
| NIFTY 100 | 24.08 | 3.53 | 1.25 |
| NIFTY 200 | 25.54 | 3.43 | 1.19 |
| NIFTY 500 | 27.34 | 3.31 | 1.14 |
| NIFTY AUTO | 34.87 | 6.40 | 0.76 |
| NIFTY BANK | 30.01 | 2.84 | 0.69 |
| NIFTY FMCG | 39.43 | 12.49 | 1.57 |
| NIFTY IT | 15.90 | 4.41 | 2.10 |
| NIFTY METAL | 19.90 | 1.34 | 3.76 |
| NIFTY PHARMA | 36.58 | 4.86 | 0.50 |
| NIFTY REALTY | 51.11 | 1.14 | 0.46 |
Monday, 24 April 2017
My Stock screen - Buy and hold for min. 3 qtrs (MACD/RSI/PIVOT/PIVOT(L) Confluence : March 24,2017
| Sr. | Stock Name | Symbol | Price |
| 1 | Aarvee Denims & Exports Limited | AARVEEDEN | 75.3 |
| 2 | Bajaj Auto Limited | BAJAJ-AUTO | 2867.75 |
| 3 | Bharat Wire Ropes Limited | BHARATWIRE | 99.15 |
| 4 | Bls International Services Limited | BLS | 1598.2 |
| 5 | Dpsc Limited | DPSCLTD | 45.3 |
| 6 | Indian Bank | INDIANB | 285.1 |
| 7 | Plastiblends India Limited | PLASTIBLEN | 501.85 |
| 8 | Ponni Sugars (erode) Limited | PONNIERODE | 212.95 |
| 9 | Tpl Plastech Limited | TPLPLASTEH | 538.35 |
| 10 | United Breweries Limited | UBL | 763.15 |
Saturday, 22 April 2017
My Stock screen - Buy and hold for min. 3 qtrs (MACD/RSI/PIVOT/PIVOT(L) Confluence : March 21,17
| Sr. | Stock Name | Symbol | Target | Buy price | Exit |
| 1 | Alkali Metals Limited | ALKALI | 160 | 70-80 | 70 |
| 2 | Ashok Leyland Limited | ASHOKLEY | 151 | 70-85 | 75 |
| 3 | Dharani Sugars & Chemicals Limited | DHARSUGAR | 77 | 28-32 | 27 |
| 4 | Essel Propack Limited | ESSELPACK | 302 | 210-235 | 205 |
| 5 | Kpit Technologies Limited | KPIT | 166 | 120-130 | 115 |
| 6 | Liberty Shoes Limited | LIBERTSHOE | 235 | 165-175 | 159 |
| 7 | Noida Toll Bridge Company Limited | NOIDATOLL | 26 | 11.25-12.50 | 10.6 |
| 8 | Ntpc Limited | NTPC | 212 | 160-167 | 154 |
| 9 | The Peria Karamalai Tea & Produce Company Limited | PKTEA | 230 | 130-155 | 127 |
| 10 | Shriram Pistons & Rings Limited | SHRIPISTON | 2440 | 1130-1200 | 1120 |
Monday, 17 April 2017
Sunday, 16 April 2017
Friday, 14 April 2017
Trader and Investor - COMPARABLE
Usain Bolt is fast not just because he can run fast. He does run very fast, but that’s half the story. He is fast because he can run fast longer. To understand this, you need to understand the distribution of speed in a typical 100m race.
Winning a sprint is all about reaching your top speed quickest while maintaining the top speed longest. Bolt ran 100m in 9.58 s, this means his speed was 10.438 meters/second. That’s the average speed, which doesn’t give the complete picture. When any runner sprints, the sprinter accelerates from 0 to his/her top speed, maintains that speed and then decelerates at the end of the run. The top speed for any sprinter is obviously higher than the average speed. In Bolt’s case, his top speed was 12.195 meters/second. This itself is not extraordinary for Olympic level sprinters. What’s extraordinary about Bolt is that he maintained it for a full 30 meters. Most sprinters cannot maintain their top speed for more than 10 meters. Bolt is not extraordinarily faster than other Olympic level sprinters. He is fast for a longer duration.
Image Source World's Fastest Man
That’s why you see in most of his races it seems like he accelerates in the last 40 m and then does a sort of victory dance in the last 20m. His acceleration is an illusion. He isn’t accelerating; the others are decelerating. Right around the 50m mark, everyone reaches their top speed, including Bolt. Around the 60m mark, everyone else slows down while Bolt keeps going. Right around the 80m mark, Bolt realizes that everyone else has dropped behind and he starts slowing down. It is possible that he can continue at the same pace for longer than 80m, but he doesn’t really need to.
Wednesday, 12 April 2017
Tuesday, 11 April 2017
Sunday, 9 April 2017
Look :
These are my two big bets:
- Virinchi: company is at an big inflection point, promoter increased to 42% from 13% in March. Company will have 700 beds in operation compared to 250–300 now, coming Q4 will be the first quarter to get in hospital business in top line and bottom line. Should be at 450–500 levels by 2019 end. Don't miss this.
- Repro India: another big big story. Comoany has 1 million book titles now and is growing exponentially. tie up with Ingram is huge huge opportunity. One book factory and rappled are superb concepts (go through these). I expect it to be a 5000–6000 crore mcap by 2020. Now it's at 420–430 crore mcap.
GOLD and US OIL : Price axis
| 1920 | 26.08 | 66.58 | ||
| Difference | 688 | 2518.56 | ||
| 2422.24 | ||||
| 2345.18 | ||||
| 2238.54 | ||||
| 2182.82 | ||||
| 2121.58 | ||||
| 2067.23 | ||||
| 1998.43 | ||||
| 1920.00 | ||||
| 1830.56 | ||||
| 1734.24 | ||||
| 1657.18 | ||||
| 1601.46 | ||||
| 1550.54 | ||||
| 1494.82 | ||||
| 1433.58 | ||||
| 1379.23 | ||||
| 1310.43 | ||||
| 1142.56 | ||||
| 1046.24 |
Saturday, 8 April 2017
Next Fortnight trade Plan
Fortnight Ideas:
Buy SBIN 278-280 Target 298 and 310
Buy RELIANCE 1383/1361 Target 1448 and 1468
Buy TATA STEEL 461 /470 Target 541
Buy TATA MOTORS 452 Target 520
Buy VEDL 265 / 259 Target 282
Buy HINDALCO 189 Target 204
Buy NIFTY 9166 Target 9393
Buy BANK NIFTY 21195 Target 21850
Buy SBIN 278-280 Target 298 and 310
Buy RELIANCE 1383/1361 Target 1448 and 1468
Buy TATA STEEL 461 /470 Target 541
Buy TATA MOTORS 452 Target 520
Buy VEDL 265 / 259 Target 282
Buy HINDALCO 189 Target 204
Buy NIFTY 9166 Target 9393
Buy BANK NIFTY 21195 Target 21850
Friday, 7 April 2017
NIFTY
| Price |
| 8300.61 |
| 8429.00 |
| 8557.38 |
| 8654.21 |
| 8740.16 |
| 8848.96 |
| 8973.00 |
| 9114.44 |
| 9266.76 |
| 9423.43 |
| 9645.38 |
| 10061.00 |
| 10322.12 |
| 10733.38 |
Thursday, 6 April 2017
Courtesy : Quora Digest
Anurag Bhatia, Hedge fund manager, minance.com
Updated 1h ago · Upvoted by Michael Reynolds, Co-Founder of Bear & Bull Stock Challenge, former M&A banker. I've been investing since AAPL was be…
1. Jesse Livermore shorted during the crash of 1929 and made $100 million.
One of the first famous short-sellers in the history of the the U.S. stock market, Jesse Livermore first shorted stocks on a hunch that preceded the San Francisco earthquake. Though he really couldn't have foreseen the quake itself, the trade bagged him $250,000, and gave him a taste for short-selling. He then shorted the 1907 market crash and made $1 million. Then he made $3 million shorting wheat in 1925. But he joined the big leagues when correctly predicted the 1929 crash, and shorted the entire market, and bagged $100 million—that's serious money even now, it was an even bigger jackpot then.
2. Paul Tudor Jones made an estimated $100 million when he predicted Black Monday in 1987 and shorted the stock market.
Using technical analysis and historical S&P data, Paul Tudor Jones correctly predicted that the market was going to crash in 1987 and proceeded to massively short stocks. The Dow plunged 22%, and estimates put his gains from that trad at around $100 million.
3. Andy Krieger shorted the Kiwi in the late 80s and made $300 million.
In 1987, just after the Black Monday crash investors dumped the U.S. dollar and rushed into other currencies. Andy Krieger, a the 32-year-old currency trader at Banker's Trust, guessed that the New Zealand dollar, also know as the 'Kiwi', was dangerously overvalued. Using options, which were a relatively new financial instrument at the time, Krieger took up a short position against the Kiwi worth millions of dollars. So much so that his sell orders actually exceeded the New Zealand money supply. The kiwi yo-yoed between a 3 - 5 percent loss and netted Kreiger's employers about $300 million. Krieger got a $3 million bonus out of the deal.
4. Jim Rogers went long on commodities when they were cheap in the late 90s.
Back in the 1990's, where commodities were still in long bear market, Jim Rogers saw the bull market coming from a mile away and created the Rogers International Commodity Index. This index has consistently returned 209 percent since 1998, and Rogers expects that this market is only going to get more bullish as paper assets start to become worthless. What's really impressive about this is that he accurately called the bottom of the market that's gone on to rally for more than a decade.
4. George Soros shorted the British pound and made $1 billion.
Back in the 90s when Britain was thriving, not only did George Soros short the pound, he borrowed heavily to do so. This was when pound was being traded on a fixed exchange rate. Soon after Soros's short bet, the British government realized that it would loose billions if it continued to artificially prop up the pound. They withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and the pound plummeted.
5. Stanley Druckenmiller bet on the German mark and made $1 billion.
While George Soros was shorting the pound, Stanley Druckenmiller, who was then employed by Soros's Quantum fund, was betting on the German mark. Before the Berlin Wall fell, the reunification of East and West Germany seems like so mammoth a task that the German mark was depressed to an extreme level. Initially Druckenmiller put several million into a bet that the mark would rally, but later, on Soros's say-so, he increased his purchase to about $2 billion. The mark rallied, and Druckenmiller made the fund $1 billion.
6. Louis Bacon bet on Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait and returned 86% that year.
He also bet that the U.S. would quickly defeat Iraq in the 1990s, and that the oil market would recover. Back in the 90s, when the idea of trading on a macro basis was almost unheard of, Bacon beat the CIA in predicting that Hussein would attack Kuwait, went long on oil and short on stocks. His hedge fund returned 86 percent that year.
7. John Templeton shorted the Dot-Com bubble and made $80 million in weeks.
Legendary investor Sir John Templeton, a veteran at making short bets, made his biggest and best bet ever just eight years before he died, in 2000, just before the dot-com bubble popped. He shorted a whole variety basket of internet stocks, said that it was the easiest money he'd ever made. His trick: he sold all his stock just ahead of the post-IPO six-month lock-up expiry, which is when a flood of newly minted tech CEOs and founders were looking to cash out. He made $80 million in a few weeks.
8. Jim Chanos shorted Enron when everyone thought the company was in great shape.
The first time Jim Chanos' firm analyzed an Enron document was in 1999. By the end of 2000, after almost two years of investigation and analysis into Enron's activities, Chanos knew that the company was lying about pretty much everything important and was headed for disaster. So, around November 2000, just after Enron's stock hit $90 and had a target price of $130 - $140, Chanos' firm initiated a short position. It took more than a year for the stock to hit rock bottom—the company filed for bankruptcy in December 2001, but by then Chanos had made a bundle.
9. Oil God Andrew Hall went really, really long on oil and made enough to warrant a $100 million bonus.
In 2003, when oil was trading at about $30 a barrel, Andrew Hall, who was working for Citigroup's energy trading division Phibro at the time, was betting that oil would reach $100 within five years. So he bought a whole bunch of 'long-dated oil futures' that would only pay off if his hunch was right. And since his prediction seemed so far-fetched at the time, he got them cheap. It was a risky bet. If the price of oil hadn't cleared $100 by 2008 (which it did) Hall would be out a bundle. But his hunch played out, and the Phibro division made more money that it would have had they just directly invested in oil ETFs. Citi was supposed to pay Hall $100 million for the trade, but they didn't want to give him the full amount. The whole thing riled up so much controversy that Citi ended up selling Phibro.
10. John Arnold bet against rival energy hedge fund Amaranth's natural gas positions.
When energy hedge fund Amaranth LLC collapsed in the fall of 2006, after quickly losing more than $6 billion, Enron-alum John Arnold at rival energy hedge fund Centaurus Energy, returned 200 percent. Amaranth's Brian Hunter was betting that natural gas prices would rise as winter set in, but meteorologists began predicting a mild winter, the energy fund started bleeding money, facing $3 billion in margin calls at one point. All the while, Arnold had taken a short position on natural gas and was minting money as quickly as Amaranth was losing it.
11. John Paulson shorted subprime mortgages just before the financial crisis hit and made $3-4 billion.
Few people saw the housing bubble coming, and even fewer got the timing just right. John Paulson was one of them. While financial giants were still voraciously buying up all sorts of financial assets backed by subprime mortgages, Paulson's hedge fund, Paulson & Co, bet against them, and heavily. He convinced banks to write credit-default-swaps on such mortgage-backed assets, and then proceeded to snap up as many as he could. Then he just sat and waited for the market to go kaput, and cashed in. His hedge fund made around $3-4 billion on the deal.
12. David Tepper made $7 billion going long on banks after the financial crisis.
In 2009, just after the financial crisis hit and everyone thought the global financial system was on the verge of collapse, David Tepper kept his cool and bought enormous quantities of severely depressed big bank stocks—Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BOA). By the end of the year, Bank of America quadrupled and Citi had trebled from it's post-crash lows, netting Tepper's hedge fund a cool $7 billion, of which $4 billion went right into Tepper's coffers. While this seems like an obvious bet in hindsight, there was a lot of worry at the time that big banks would be nationalized.
Note: I want to add relevant charts for each of the trades. If you find such charts, please add them by editing this answer.
Edit: Scott Hudson pointed out that the image for Andy Krieger was wrong. Thanks to him we now have the correct image. If you find one of a better resolution, feel free to edit the answer.
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