Palladium - commodity out performer. Looks like Nice breakout trade

US OIL

XAU USD: BEARISH WARNING SIGNAL ?????????? : Study

 Fellow traders,

I would like to share some of my concerns on Gold ( Remember I warned you US OIl bearish ).

Let us see the weekly chart.

If you see the FIB projections, you can watch the 1925 downfall to 1047 fits into 0 - 261.8 structure
0 - 1047
100- 1377
161.8 - 1577
261.8 - 1925.

My TREND Signal(13919) RED @ 1702 :denotes the start of Bear phase( For Ellioticians it is wave 3 and My TREND signal GREEN(13919) @ 1116: points the start of the Bull rally (For ELLTNs it is wave 4 ).

As per FIB projections,GOLD has completed its rally and wave 5 is unfolding: a Bear phase.
My Signal RED yet to appear for the firm confirmation, until then I am looking at my targets 1308 and 1254. Once My RED signal appears,I will run my profits.

Let us look at the Daily chart.

The Harmonic Shark pattern completed.Sell signal appeared after few days( D point intact )
My daily trend signal Red appeared with bearish condition,
Here too, the FIB  projectios fit in, as explained earlier.

TRENDLINE

The important factor if you see, the Trendline drawn hits the peaks of 1925,1795, 1375, the price hit 1377 and cannot pierce through.
This I interpret
1925 - End of wave 5 of bull phase,
1795 - End of wave 2 of bear phase

My Ideas on fundamentals :

1. Recent activities of the central banks indicate that they go to any extent to protect the economy.

2. Negative rates of interest,I too believed,it is bad. I know my forefathers who had hot cash or gold hidden in underground chambers,it is a way of saving money not to lose or lost in some uncertain business.They never cared about inflation,cost of carrry.

3. When population ,lifestyle,education move higher, economy bound to grow, I have DJIA target in 21 k levels with other indices as well at higher targets.

4.Then why this hullabulla happens?
Crude oil is the dominant deciding factor of the World economy. When Oil falls from 100 $ to 40 $,
60 $ money evaporates: trillions of dollars disappeared.Economies dependent on Oil revenues are strongly hit and had to pull out the investments they had elsewhere: i.e., mainly in high yield avenues
i,e, Stock markets.

5. The world economy is adjusting to the reality, central bankers had the lead role.

Conclusion:

People who have huge long positions in Gold futures be very careful, watch prices,dont get carried away by the Media Hypes. Traders very nice shorting opportunity arrived, Use efficiently and maximise your profits.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Added after 1 hr :

My Gann levels : correction,1180, peak 1273, ( 0.225of 1180)  is 1372  matches with the price of gold

Silver price volatility may take the price to 18.270

US OIL; Pullback hesitating at 38.2 FIB correction: no upside seen where as downside target 38.80 (50: FIB) looks possible.

Gold is correcting: I see 1302 and 1249 levels COMING:

Updates are closed.

Aug 05- Evening UPDATE

	Aug 05 -	9.10 pm	Namakkal	GMT +05:30
Broker	FXCM Prices	TRADE  TRACK   SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.295			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.295			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.295			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15		Sell-1339.24	1360.43	buy closed		yes-Sell
	daily -M	1244.65		Sell-1339.25	1360.43	buy closed		yes-Sell
	daily-L	1090.27			1360.43			yes
Silver	daily	16.346		Sell-19.734	19.734	buy closed		yes- Sell
Copper	daily- S		2.182		2.1573			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.1573			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.1573			yes

Aug 05- Morning UPDATE

	Aug 05 -	8.00 am	Namakkal	GMT +05:30
Broker	FXCM Prices	TRADE  TRACK   SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.709			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.709			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.709			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15			1360.43			yes
	daily -M	1244.65			1360.43			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1360.43			yes
Silver	daily	16.346			20.329			yes
Copper	daily- S		2.182		2.1713			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.1713			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.1713			yes

Aug 04 - Evening UPDATE

	Aug 04  -	9.00 pm	Namakkal	GMT +05:30
Broker	FXCM Prices	TRADE  TRACK   SHEET
		SIGNAL	STATUS			Trade closed details		tradesOpen
		BUY @	Sell @	New signal	Current price
Crude	daily- S		46.8		41.294			yes
	daily -M		46.8		41.294			yes
	daily-L		46.8		41.294			yes
Gold	daily- S	1337.15			1363.29			yes
	daily -M	1244.65			1363.29			yes
	daily-L	1090.27			1363.29			yes
Silver	daily	16.346			20.417			yes
Copper	daily- S		2.182		2.1753			yes
	daily -M	2.0876			2.1753			yes
	daily-L	2.0876			2.1753			yes

As posted earlier: My Idea:Trading Gold : Buying small cap co.shares: I have added US OIL too. My wealth generating personal charts with lot sizes